Consumer: I would like to have the features contained in the latest upgrade to your computer software package, but I am leery of installing the upgrade because a friend has told me he had a problem with it.
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The company representative concludes that the consumer is very unlikely to encounter problems with a software upgrade. As support, the representative cites the fact that the company has distributed many copies of the upgrade but has received only a few calls from users who had problems.
The representative draws a conclusion about the likelihood of a problem based on evidence about how many people have called the company about that problem. This fails to consider the possibility that more users may have had problems with the upgrade, but did not call the company about their problems.
The reasoning in the company ████████████████ ████████ ██ ████ ██████████ ██ █████████ ███████ ██ █████ ██ ████████ ███ ███████████ ████
the company will █████ ███████ ███████ ████ ████████ ███ ████████ ████ ███ ███████ ███████
Whether the company plans to correct any problems is irrelevant to the argument, which is about whether problems are likely to occur in the first place.
some of the ████████ ██████ ████ ███████████ ████ ███ ███████ ████ ████ █████ ███████
The representative’s argument isn’t about how serious people’s problems may have been, only about how likely people are to encounter problems at all—so this is irrelevant.
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The representative’s conclusion is that a problem is unlikely, based on how many people have reported problems to the company. The possibility that many people may have had problems without reporting them undermines the representative’s ability to support that conclusion.
the consumer will ██████████ ████████ ████████ ██ ███ ███████ ██ ███ █████████
The likelihood of a problem if the consumer doesn’t install the upgrade is irrelevant, because the representative’s argument is only about the likelihood of a problem if the upgrade is installed.
some of the ████████ ████████ ████ █ ██████ ██ █████ ███████ ██ ██████ ████████████
The reasons that users may have encountered problems are irrelevant. The argument is about the overall likelihood of a problem, no matter what the reason.