Self-study
Supervisor: Conclusion Our next budget proposal will probably be approved, because Support normally about half of all budget proposals that the vice president considers are approved, and Support our last five budget proposals have all been turned down.
Summarize Argument
The supervisor concludes that their next budget proposal will likely be approved because their last five have been rejected, but roughly half of all budget proposals are approved by the vice president.
Identify and Describe Flaw
The supervisor reasons that because their last five budget proposals have been turned down, and about half of all budget proposals the vice president considers are approved, their next budget proposal will probably be approved. However, the supervisor’s reasoning is flawed because it presumes, without reason, that the last five budget proposals being rejected increases the likelihood that the next budget proposal will be approved. Whether the next proposal will be good enough to be approved has nothing to do with the last five proposals.
24.
The supervisor's reasoning is flawed ███████ ██ █████████ ███████ ██████ ████████ ████
a
the last five ██████ ██████████ ██████ ████ ██████ ████ ██████████ ████ ███ ████ ████ ██████ █████████ ████ ██ ████████
The supervisor doesn’t discuss the likelihood of the next five budget proposals being approved. The supervisor only argues that the next budget proposal will probably be approved.
b
the vice president ██ ████████ ██ ███████ ██ █████ ████ ██ ███ ██████ █████████ █████████
The supervisor never states or implies that the vice president must approve at least half of all budget proposals. The supervisor only says that roughly half of all budget proposals considered by the vice president end up being approved.
c
having the last ████ ██████ █████████ ██████ ████ ███████ ███ ██████████ ████ ███ ████ ██████ ████████ ████ ██ ██████ ████
This is an unexplained assumption made by the supervisor. The supervisor provides no reason to believe that the last five budget proposals being rejected has any bearing on the likelihood of the next budget proposal being approved.
d
the majority of ███ ████ ████ ██████ █████████ ████████ ██ ██ ██████ ████
The supervisor’s argument isn’t concerned with whether the last five budget proposals should’ve been turned down.
e
the likelihood that █ ██████ ████████ ████ ██ ████████ ██ ██████████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ █████ ████ ██████ ████████ ████████
The supervisor never discusses the amount of money requested by any budget proposals.