Ringtail opossums are an Australian wildlife species that is potentially endangered. █ ██████ ██ ████████ ████████ ████ ███ ████ ████████ ███ ████████████ ██████ ██ █████████ ████ █████████ █████ █████ ████████ ██ ███ █████ ████████████ ███████ ██ █████ ████████ ████ ██████ ██ ██████ █ ███████ ███ ██████ ██ ██████████ ████████████████ █████████ ████ ███ ██████ ████████ ███████ ██████████ ███ ██████████ ███ ██ █ ████████ ██ █████ ██ ███ ████ ██████████ ████████ ███ ██ ██████████ ████████ ███████ ███████ █████ ███ ███████ ███ ███ █████████ ███████ █████████
The captive opossums were killed by predators, so the wild opossums must have been killed by predators too.
This reasoning is best viewed as an analogy between the two types of opossums. The author assumes the two groups are similarly situated (that’s a legal term meaning “alike in all the relevant ways”), so the stuff we learn about captive opossums applies directly to wild ones.
We typically strengthen analogies by defending against potential disanalogies – relevant ways in which the two groups could be different. That is, we’re looking for answer choices that say “you might think captive and wild opossums are different [in this respect], but actually they’re similar [in that respect].”
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ ████████ ████████ ███ █████████████████ █████████
There are fewer ██████████ ████████ ███████ ████ ████ ██ ███ ████████ ███████ ████ █████ ███ ██████ ███████ ████ ████ ██ ███ ████████ ████████
First off, this is directionally wrong on its face. Our conclusion says the predators are non-native, so if we learn there are relatively few non-native predator species, that cuts the wrong way.
Really though, it’s flatly irrelevant because number of species =/= number of predators. Like maybe there are millions of foxes from a single species massacring opossums while 80 other species only make up a few hundred animals combined.
Foxes, which were ██████████ ████ █████████ ████ ███ █████ ████ ███████ ██ ███ ██████████ ███████ ████ ████████████ ████ ███ ████ █████ ███████ ████████
At its best, (B) suggests there are other non-native predators out there that present an even more dire threat to opossums than foxes, strengthening the “it was non-native predators” hypothesis.
But (B) doesn’t really say that. It doesn’t tell us whether those “foreign species” were predators, for example, and it really doesn’t tell us they were predators-that-prey-on-opossums. In fact, we have active reason to believe those other foreign species don’t prey on opossums because foxes are clearly the biggest threat to opossums, having massacred 75% of them.
The ringtail opossums ████ ████ ██████ ██ █████████ ████ ███ █ ████ ███████ ██ ████ █████ ████████ ████████ █████████ ███ ██ ███ █████
(C) and (E) both guard against alternative explanations. (C) is wrong because compared to (E), the alternative explanation (C) guards against is much less reasonable / likely.
At first glance, the alternative explanation in (C) is “maybe the wild opossums died of food scarcity,” which seems plausible enough. We’re guarding against that by saying “maybe something about the captive opossums’ diet was different.”
Say more. Paint that picture for me. Like really, think precisely about what that’s suggesting, and how it could work. On this alternative explanation...
The captive opossums were fed [something different and special] that let them dodge a very real food scarcity problem, allowing them to be killed by foxes instead of starvation.
What could that special diet even be? My best shot at telling this story is “maybe we force-fed the captive opossums so they got really really really fat, which made them starve much more slowly than they otherwise would have, which is why they lived long enough to be eaten by foxes.”
That scenario is possible and logically consistent, but it’s much less likely and reasonable than the alternative explanation presented in (E).
Weaken Qs: Answers that try to introduce an alternate explanation, but fall short, or try to explain a different phenomenon.
Strengthen Qs: Answers that try to eliminate an alternate explanation, but fall short, or try to eliminate an explanation for a different phenomenon.
Few of the ███████ ████ ███████ ████ ███ ████████ ███████ ███ ████ ███████ ███ ██████ ██ ██████████
The native v. non-native distinction only matters because our conclusion mentions non-native predator species. Distinguishing between native and non-native competitors for food is irrelevant, and that distinction is all (D) accomplishes. (D) does not, for example, establish that few species compete with opossums for food.
Weaken Qs: Answers that try to introduce an alternate explanation, but fall short, or try to explain a different phenomenon.
Strengthen Qs: Answers that try to eliminate an alternate explanation, but fall short, or try to eliminate an explanation for a different phenomenon.
Ringtail opossums that ████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ████ ██████ ██████████ ███████ █████ ██ ████ ████████████ ████ ██ ████████ ████████ ██████ ██ ██████████
(C) and (E) both guard against alternative explanations. (E) is right because compared to (C), the alternative explanation it guards against is much more reasonable / likely.
(E) strengthens the argument by saying “you might think the captive opossums were slaughtered by foxes because they lack the street smarts of wild opossums, but actually wild opossums lack street smarts as well.”
The alternative explanation (E) guards against is eminently reasonable. It makes sense in the real world to suspect that animals raised in captivity will be worse at avoiding predators. Think about indoor vs. outdoor cats, for example. Princess Buttercup would get absolutely wrecked by Scraggly Tom if she were let outside after a decade of indoor pampering.
Weaken: Introduce or suggest an alternate explanation for the target phenomenon.
Strengthen: Helps to eliminate an alternate explanation for the target phenomenon.
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