Some statisticians claim that the surest way to increase the overall correctness of the total set of one's beliefs is: never change that set, except by rejecting a belief when given adequate evidence against it. ████████ ██ ████ ████ ███ ████ ████ ███ █████████ ████ ████████ ███ ████ █████████ ████ ███ ████ ██ █████████ ███ █████ ████ ██ ██████ ██████ ████ ██ █████ ███████ ██ ████ █████ █████ ███████ ██████████ ███ █████ ████ █████ ███ █████ ████ ████ █████ ███ █████ ████████ █████ ██ ████ ████ ███████ ██ █████ ██ ████████ ███ ██████████████ █████ ████ ██ █████████
The author concludes that it is not correct to believe that the surest way to increase the overall correctness of a set of one’s beliefs is to never change the set, except by rejecting a belief when given adequate evidence against it. This is based on the author’s assertion that, if one were to follow that approach, then over time, one would have fewer and fewer beliefs. But, we need many beliefs in order to survive. (The implication is that following the approach described would threaten our ability to survive.)
The author’s premises establish that following the approach described threatens our ability to survive. But that doesn’t show that the approach isn’t the surest way to increase the overall correctness of one’s set of beliefs. Why can’t the surest way to increase overall correctness also threaten our survival?
The argument is most vulnerable ██ █████████ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ██
presumes, without providing ███ ██████████████ ████ ███ ██████ ███ ██ ██████████ ███ ███████ ███████████ ██ ███ █████ ███ ██ █████ ███████ ████ ███ ██████ █████ ███████ ██ ███████
neglects the possibility ████ ████ █████ █████████ ███ ██████████████ █████ ███ █████ ████ ██████ ███ ███████ ████ █████████ ████ ████ █████ ██ ████████
overlooks the possibility ████ ████ █████ ████ ██ ███████ ███ ████ ███████ ███████ ████ ███ ████ █████ ████ ██ ███████
takes for granted ████ ███ ██████ ██████ ████ ███████ ███████ ██ ████████ ████ ████ █████ ████████ ████████ ███████ ████
takes for granted ████ ███ ███████ ██ ████ ██ █████ ██ ████ ████ ███████ ████ ███ ██ ███████ ███████