Physician: Support Heart disease generally affects men at an earlier age than it does women, who tend to experience heart disease after menopause. ████ █████ ████ ███ ████████ ████████ ███ █████████████ ███ ████ ████ ███ ██████████ ██████ ███ ████ ███ █████ ██ ████ ████████████ ██ ██████ ███ █████ ████████ ████ ████████ █████ ██████████ ██ ███ █████████ █████ ████ ████████████ █████ ██ ████████ ███ ████████ █████ ██ ████████ █████ ████████
The physician observes two phenomena:
Phenomenon 1: Heart disease generally affects men at an earlier age than women.
Phenomenon 2: Women tend to experience heart disease after menopause.
He then notes some facts about hormones: when young, men have ten times as much testosterone as women, and women abruptly lose estrogen after menopause. Based on the way these hormone facts line up with the two phenomena, the physician proposes a hypothesis: testosterone tends to promote heart disease, and estrogen tends to inhibit it.
In other words, the physician is using the correlation between hormone levels and heart disease patterns as evidence that the hormones are actually causing those patterns. Men have way more testosterone and get heart disease earlier, so testosterone must be a cause. Women lose estrogen and then start getting heart disease, so estrogen must have been protecting them.
The physician's reasoning has a familiar structure: he notices that two things go together and concludes that one causes the other. But correlation doesn't prove causation. Maybe something else about being male (besides testosterone) makes men more prone to early heart disease. Maybe something else changes at menopause (besides losing estrogen) that increases women's risk. The physician jumps from "these things happen together" to "one is causing the other" without ruling out other explanations.
Analysis by Kevin_Lin
The physician's argument is questionable ███████ ██ ████████ █████ ███ ██ ███ █████████ ███████ █████████ ██████████ ██████████████
Hormones are the ███████ ███████ ████ ███████ ███ ███ ███████████ ██ ███████████ █████ ███████ █████ ███████ █████ ███ ████
Estrogen and testosterone ███ ███ ████ ████████ ████ ███████ ██ ███████ █████ ████████
Men with high ████████████ ██████ ████ █ ███████ ████ ███ █████ ███████ ████ ██ ██████████████ ██████
Because hormone levels ███ ██████████ ████ █████ ███████ ████ █████████ █████ ████████
Hormone levels do ███ ████ ████ ██████ ██ ███████ ██████████ █████ █████ ██ ███ ████ ███ ███ ███████