Commissioner: Support Budget forecasters project a revenue shortfall of a billion dollars in the coming fiscal year. █████ █████ ██ ██ ████████ ███ ██ ████████ ███ █████████ ██████ ███ ████ ██████ ██ ██ ████████ █████████████ ███ ████ ██████ ███ ████████ ████████ ████ ████ █████ █████ ███████ ██ █ ███████ ███████ ████ ███ ██████ ██████ █████ ██ ████ ██ ████ ██ █████ ███ ███████ ██ █████ ██████████ ████ ██ ██ █████ ████ █████
The commissioner concludes that the only way to solve the problem of the revenue shortfall is by adopting his plan. He supports this with three premises:
(1) Budget forecasters predict a billion-dollar shortfall next year.
(2) We can't increase funds, so we must cut spending.
(3) This plan would cut spending and save a billion dollars.
This is the cookie-cutter flaw of mistaking sufficiency for necessity. The author treats “his plan” as necessary for “solve the problem.” But according to the premises, “his plan” is sufficient, not necessary.
In other words, the commissioner’s argument is flawed because he ignores the possibility that some other plan or solution could also solve the revenue shortfall. His plan might not be the only option.
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