Columnist: Analysts argue that Support as baby boomers reach the age of 50, they will begin seriously planning for retirement. ████ ████ ████ ████ ██ ██████ ████ █████ █████████ █████████ ██ █████ ███████ █████ █████ ████████ █████████ ████ █████ ████ ████ ████ ███ █████ ███████ █████████ ██ █████████ █████ ██ █████ ███████ ████████ █████ █████ ██ ████ ██ ████ ████ █████ ███ ████ ███ █████ ██████ ███████████ ██ ███████████ ██████████ ██ ████ █████████ █████████ █████████ ████ █████ ██████ ████ ███ ██ ██████████ ███ ████ ████████ █████ ████ ████ ██████ ████ ████ ███████████ █████ ████ ███████
The columnist concludes that analysts who think that stock prices will rise as baby boomers start saving for retirement are being too optimistic. The columnist accepts that boomers will start consuming less to plan for retirement, but claims that lower consumption will hurt corporate earnings. This will lower stock prices, which will lead boomers to invest their savings elsewhere. So, the analysts’ prediction of an ongoing stock boom is unjustified.
The columnist argues based on the same initial factual premises as the analysts: that boomers will start saving more and consuming less as they prepare to retire. However, the columnist draws a different conclusion from these premises based on a different prediction of how boomers’ changing habits will affect the economy.
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The columnist doesn’t question the truth of the analysts’ premises that boomers will start planning for retirement, thus saving more and consuming less. The columnist just makes a different prediction based on these premises.
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The columnist never suggests that the analysts’ argument is wrong because it’s self-serving. Sure, if the analysts were correct, they would “stand to gain,” but that doesn’t mean that they benefit from just making the argument.
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The columnist’s alternative conclusion, that boomers will probably not invest heavily in stocks, is indeed drawn from the analysts’ same premises. These premises are that boomers will soon start retirement planning, leading them to consume less and save more.
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The columnist doesn’t agree that the analysts are basically right. The columnist’s claims that stock prices will stay low and boomers will invest elsewhere are totally opposed to the analysts’ conclusion that boomers’ investment in stocks will create ongoing gains.
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The columnist simply doesn’t argue in favor of the analysts’ conclusion; nor do the two use different evidence. In fact, the columnist uses the same body of evidence to argue against the analysts’ conclusion.