Self-study
Fortune-teller: Admittedly, the claims of some self-proclaimed "psychics" have been shown to be fraudulent, but the exposure of a few charlatans cannot alter the fundamental fact that Support it has not been scientifically proven that there is no such thing as extrasensory perception (ESP). ████████████ █████ ███ ██████ ████████ ██ ███████ ████ █ █████ ████ ████ ██ █████████ ███ ████ ████████ ████ ████ ███████████ ██ ███████ ████
Can't Prove It Wrong ≠ It's Right
The fortune-teller starts by conceding that some self-proclaimed psychics have been exposed as frauds. But she brushes this aside, arguing that a few frauds don't change the "fundamental fact" that science hasn't proven ESP doesn't exist. She then concludes that some people really do have ESP.
Are you convinced? The premises establish that nobody has managed to prove ESP is fake. But not being able to prove it's fake doesn't mean it's real. It just means we don't know. If that's hard to understand, think about a claim you think is ridiculous in real life. Say, the idea that our society's elite are reptilian humanoid aliens. Nobody's proven definitively that they're not reptilian humanoid aliens. Does that mean they are? Nope.
Want a Visual?
There are three possible positions we could be in regarding ESP:
Proposition: "ESP is real"
PROVEN FALSE
✗
NOT PROVEN
EITHER WAY
EITHER WAY
PROVEN TRUE
▲
Premises establish
we're not here
Premises establish
we're not here
▲
We could be here
We could be here
▲
But the author
thinks we're here
But the author
thinks we're here
The premises tell us that science hasn't been able to rule out ESP. That means we're not in the left box; we're in the middle. But the fortune-teller's conclusion that some individuals do possess ESP jumps all the way to the right box.
8.
The reasoning in the fortune-teller's ████████ ██ ████ ██████████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ███ ████████
a
takes for granted ████ █████ ████ ████ ██████ ████ █ ██████████████ ████ ███ █████████ ████ ████████ █████ ████ ██████████████
In a timed situation, I'd move on from this quickly because it doesn't sound anything like the flaw we anticipated up front. And I definitely wouldn't take time to unpack the gibberish. But if you're curious, I think the real reason this is wrong is that it's a logically sensible assumption. The fortune-teller does acknowledge that some people have been shown to be fraudulent in their claims of having ESP. And she does think that the revelation of these frauds doesn't prove that everyone lacks ESP. In other words, she thinks ESP is still possible, despite some people who don't have ESP. But this isn't why the author's argument is unpersuasive. It's completely reasonable to assume that the fact some people are fakes doesn't, by itself, prove that everyone lacks ESP.
b
takes for granted ████ ███ ██████ ██ ████████████ ████████ ██ █████ █ █████ ██ ███ ████ ██████ ████████ ██ ███████ ███ ██████ ██████ ████ █████
This might be tempting because the fortune-teller does emphasize how numerous the failed attempts have been. But does she assume the number of failed attempts is the only relevant factor? Not necessarily. Even if you think she only brings up one factor, that doesn't mean she thinks other factors are irrelevant. She just doesn't mention them. (B) misses the deeper problem: the fortune-teller treats lack of evidence against ESP as proof that ESP exists.
c
overlooks the possibility ████ ████ ██ ███ ██████████ ███████ █████████ ███████ ██████████ ███████████ █████ ███████ ███ ██████
This says the argument overlooks the possibility that scientific studies reached inaccurate conclusions about ESP. But the fortune-teller isn't relying on the conclusions of any specific scientific studies. She's relying on the fact that science has failed to prove ESP doesn't exist. Whether individual studies were accurate or inaccurate doesn't matter to her reasoning, because she's drawing her conclusion from the overall failure to produce a disproof.
d
takes for granted ████ █████ ██ ██ ██████████ ███ ██ █████████ ███████ ████ ███████████ ███████ ███
Although the fortune-teller starts with the idea that we haven't scientifically proven that ESP is false, this doesn't mean she thinks there's no scientific way to determine whether ESP exists. She might acknowledge that there is such a way and would encourage scientists to investigate that way so we can produce scientific proof that ESP is real.
e
takes for granted ████ ███ ████ ████ █ █████ ███ ███ ████ ████████████ ██ ██ █████ ███████████ ████ ██ ██ ████
This captures the flaw we anticipated. The fortune-teller's entire reasoning rests on the move from "ESP hasn't been proven false" to "ESP must be real." But a failure to show a claim is false doesn't prove it true.