Self-study
Dr. ███████ ███████ █ ██████████ ███ █████ ████ ███ ███████████ █████████ ██ ████████ ████ █████████ ██ ███████ ███████ █████ ████ ██████ ███ ████ █████████ ██ ███████ ███████ ██████ ███ █████████ █████ ██ ███ ███████████ ██ ██████ █████████ ██████████ ████ ███ █████████ █████ ██ ███ ████ █████ ██ ███ ██████ ████████ ███ ███ ██████ ███ █████████ █████████ ████ ███ ████████ ███████ ██ ███████████ ███ ███ █████████ ████████ ██ ███ ████████████
Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
Dr. Pagano hypothesizes that climate change has caused checkerspot butterflies to move north. This is based on a correlation between the northward shift of butterflies and the northward shift of global warm zones.
Notable Assumptions
Dr. Pagano assumes that the butterflies have a reason to move towards warm zones. If these butterflies aren't sensitive to temperature, for instance, or if the northern areas they now live in are different from the areas that have warmed due to climate change, then Dr. Pagano's hypothesis would seem much less likely.
2.
Each of the following, if █████ ████████ ███ ████████ █████████ ███████
a
Checkerspot butterfly colonies ████████ █████ ██████████ ██████████ ███ ██████████ ████████ ██ █████ ███████████ ████████
This supports Dr. Pagano's argument. If checkerspot butterflies are very sensitive to temperature changes, then it seems likely that a shift in global climate would also cause a shift in the butterfly population distribution.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.
b
Climate does not ██████ ███████████ ███████████ ██████████ █████████ ███ ███ ██████ ████ ██████ ██ ██████ ████ ██ ████ █████████
This supports Dr. Pagano's argument. Even though the the butterflies aren’t directly affected by climate, they are affected indirectly by climate's effects on their food sources, which grow better in warmer climates. This helps explain why they’ve expanded their range north as global warm zones shift northward.
Causal mechanism
Causal mechanism
Answers that undermine, or help establish, the practical story of how an alleged cause could produce the alleged effect.
c
Experimental evidence suggests ████ ███ ███████████ █████████ ███ █████ ██████ ██ █ ████ █████ ██ ████████████ ███ ██████████ ███████████
This wouldn't support Dr. Pagano's argument. If the butterflies can adapt to many climates, then it seems less likely that the reason for the change in their population distribution is climate change.
Directionally wrong
Directionally wrong
Answers that, if they have any effect, do the opposite of what we want (weaken when we're trying to strengthen, or strengthen when we're trying to weaken).
d
In recent years, ██████████ ███ ███████ ████████████ ████ ████ ██████████ ████ █ ███████ ███████████ █████████ ███████████
This supports Dr. Pagano's argument. If the butterflies don't thrive in lower temperatures, it makes sense that they would move north toward warmer zones.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.
e
Several studies have █████ ████ ███████ █████ ███████ ██ █████████ ███████ ███████ ██ ███ ███████████ █████████ ███████ ████ ██ ████ █████████
This supports Dr. Pagano's argument. If closely related butterflies survive only in warm climates, then it seems more likely that checkerspot butterflies would also require warm climates to thrive, which would explain their northward movement.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.