Writer: Support I collaborated with another writer on my last book, instead of writing alone as I usually do. ███████ ███ ████ ████ ██ ████ ██ █ ██████ ██ ████ █████ ███████ █ ██████ ███████████ ████ █ ██████ ██ ██ ████ ████ ██ ████ ████ ████ ████ ████ ████
The writer should collaborate with another writer on her next book so the book will sell well. How does she know? Because she collaborated with someone else on her last book, which resulted in great sales!
The writer uses premises about her previous book to make a prediction about her next book. To do so, she’s assuming that the effect of collaboration will be the same across the two books.
The rule we’re looking for will tell us just that—that if collaboration led to success for the writer’s last book, it will also lead to success for her next book.
Which one of the following ███████████ ██ ██████ ████ █████ ██ ███████ ███ █████████ ██████
If a person's ████ █████ ████ ███████ ██ █ ██████████████ ████ ████████ ████ ████ ████ ████ █████ ██ ██ ██ ███ ████████████ ████ ███ ████ ███████
This rule triggers, but leads to the wrong conclusion: the writer never mentioned collaborating again with the same person.
A book sells ████ ████ ██ ███ ██████ ████████████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ███████ ███████
This doesn’t include the element of a previous book selling well due to collaboration, which we would need to trigger the rule we’re looking for. Even if it did, it’s backwards—it says collaboration is necessary for success, but we need a sufficient condition.
If a person's ████ █████ ████ ███████ ██ █ ██████████████ ██████ ██████████████ ██ ███ ████ ██ ████ ██████ ████ ███████ █████ █████ ████ ████ █████
The writer’s last book sold well because of a collaboration, so this rule triggers. And it also leads to the right conclusion: that if the writer collaborates again, she can expect good sales.
Writers who do ███ ███████████ ██ █████ ████ █ ███████ ██████ ██ ███████ █ ████ ████ ████ ████ █████
This doesn’t trigger, because we’re not talking about writers who do not collaborate on books.
Writers who collaborate ██ ██████ ██ ████ ███ ████ ████████ ███████ ███████ █████ ████ ████ █████
This doesn’t trigger, because we don’t actually have any information on whether the writer is a good writer or not! And the language of “usually” doesn’t quite match the conclusion we’re looking for anyway.