Self-study
Support With decreased production this year in many rice-growing countries, prices of the grain on world markets have increased. ████████ █████ ████ ████████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ████ █ █████ ██████████ ██ █████ ██████████ ██ ████ █████████████ ████ ██████████ ███████ ███████████ ████ ██ ███ █████ ████████████ ██ ███ █████ ████████████ ████ ██ ██████ ████ █████ ██████ ███████ ████ ██████ ███████ ██ ██████████ ███ █████████████ ██████ ███ ██████ ██ ████ █████████ ██ █████ ████████
Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The phenomenon is that world rice production decreased and prices increased. Analysts hypothesize that the price increase is due to the fact that most of the world's rice is controlled by governments and distributed for local use, with only a small portion being sold commercially. Because so little rice is sold commercially, minor fluctuations in production can significantly impact market supply.
Notable Assumptions
The analysts assume that because only a small amount of rice is sold commercially, it must be that a decrease in market supply caused the price increase. In other words, the analysts assume that no other factor could have caused the price increase.
16.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ █████ ████ ████ ████ ████████ ███ █████████ ███████████ ██ ███ █████ █████████
a
Rice-importing countries reduce █████████ ██ ████ ████ ███ █████ █████████ █████████████
This doesn’t affect the analysts’ explanation. (A) discusses how rice-importing countries react to price increases, but not the cause of the price increase, which is what the analysts’ explanation is about.
b
In times of █████████ ████ ███████████ ███████████ █████ ████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ███████ ███ ██████ █████ █████ ████████████ ██ █████
This doesn’t affect the analysts’ explanation. Governments choosing to store and reduce their distribution of rice should not impact market dynamics (i.e., price increases) because the rice they control was never part of the market anyway.
c
In times of █████████ ████ ███████████ ███████████ ██████ ████ ██ ███ ████ ██████████ ████████ ███ █████ ████████████ ██ █████████ ████ ████ █████ ████████
This weakens the analysts’ explanation. It challenges the assumption that the price increase is due to limited market supply by introducing the idea that, in periods of low production, world market supply is supplemented by governments who usually distribute their supply locally.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.
d
Governments that distribute ███ ████ ████ ███ █████ ███████████ ████████ ███ █████ ████████████ ██ ███ █████ ██ ██████████ ███████████
This strengthens the analysts’ explanation. It indicates that when supply is limited, governments who distribute rice locally turn to the world market for additional supply, strengthening the idea that periods of low production can greatly affect the world market supply of rice.
Directionally wrong
Directionally wrong
Answers that, if they have any effect, do the opposite of what we want (weaken when we're trying to strengthen, or strengthen when we're trying to weaken).
e
During reduced rice █████████ ██████████████ █████████ ██████ █████ █████ ██ ██████ ████████ ████ █████ ██ ██████████ ███ █████████ ████ ████████
This does not affect the analysts’ explanation, which discusses how the world market supply of rice affects the price of rice—other kinds of crops are not relevant.