Self-study
Psychologist: We asked 100 entrepreneurs and 100 business managers to answer various questions and rate how confident they were that their responses were correct. █████ ███████ ██ ████ █████ ████ ██████████████ ██ ███████ ███ █████████████ ████ ████ ████ ██ ████ ███ ████████ █████████ ████ █████████ ████ ██████ ███ ███ ██████████ █████████████ ███ ████ ██████ ██ ███████ ██ █████ █ ████████ ██ █████ ██ ███ ████████ ████ ███████ ███████ ████ ██████ ███ ███ ████ ██████████
Summarize Argument
The psychologist concludes that people who are very overconfident are more likely to attempt to start businesses than people who aren’t as overconfident. This is because, according to a study, entrepreneurs are likely to be more overconfident than business managers are.
Notable Assumptions
The psychologist assumes that overconfidence makes it more likely that someone becomes an entrepreneur, rather than that being an entrepreneur makes it more likely for someone to be overconfident. In other words, they could become overconfident after attempting to start a business, not before. The conclusion also assumes that the group of business managers stands in for "people who are less likely to attempt to start businesses", even though being a business manager doesn't necessarily stop someone from attempting to start their own business.
14.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ █████ ███ ████ ███████ ██ ███ ██████████████ ███████████
a
The questions asked ██ ███ █████████████ ███ ████████ ████████ ████████ █████████ ██████████ ███ ████████ ██████████
We don’t care what kind of questions had been asked. We just want to strengthen the relationship between greater overconfidence and higher likelihood of trying to start a business.
b
At least some ██ ███ █████████████ ████████ ███ ██████████ ██████████ ██████ ██████████ ██ █████ █████ ██████████ ████ ███ ████ ████ ███████ █████ ████████ █████ ███████████
Irrelevant. People can still be overconfident despite an accurate knowledge of the odds against them. This answer choice doesn't tell us anything about the link between being more overconfident and being more likely to start a business.
c
Another survey showed ████ ██████ ██ ██████████ ███ ██████ ██████████ ████ ███████ ██ █████████
Irrelevant. The conclusion is about likelihood of attempting to start a business, not about being successful in business.
d
The business managers ███ ████ ████ █████████████ ████ █████ ██ ████ █████████ ██ █████ ██████████ ██ ███ █████
This strengthens the overall link between overconfidence and the likelihood of starting a business. We know that some of the business managers were also overconfident, so by the psychologist's conclusion, we would expect at least a few of them to have attempted to start businesses as well. Meanwhile, if only the enterpreneurs, and none of the business managers, had ever attempted to start a business, this would suggest that being an entrepreneur is what makes someone more overconfident, and not the other way around. This answer choice rules out that possibility and strengthens the psychologist's argument.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.
e
How confident each ██████ ████████ ███ ████ ███ ██ ███ ███████ ██ ███ █████████ █████ ████ ███████ ████████████ ███████ ██ ████ ████████ ██████████ ██ ███ ██ ███ ████████ ███████
Irrelevant. The psychologist's argument doesn’t say anything about business acumen. This answer choice doesn't tell us about the relationship between overconfidence and taking the risk to start a business.
Unwarranted assumption
Unwarranted assumption