Self-study
Support The asteroid that hit the Yucatán Peninsula 65 million years ago caused both long-term climatic change and a tremendous firestorm that swept across North America. ██ ██████ ████ ████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ████ ██████ ███ ██████████ ██ ███ ████████████ █ █████ ████████ ████████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ███ █████████ ███ ███ ██ ████ ████ ███ ███████████ ██████ ███████ ███ ██ ███ ████████ ███████ █████████ ████ ███ ██████████ ███████ ██████ ██ ██████ █████████ ███ █████████████ ██████████ ██ ███ ██████████ ███████
Method of Reasoning
The argument presents a cause with two effects (an asteroid causing both climate change and a firestorm), a lack of evidence that either of those effects caused some third effect (the triceratops's extinction), and a conclusion stating that we can’t say the original cause led to the third effect.
Identify and Describe Flaw
This argument features bad causal reasoning. Just because we don’t have direct evidence that the firestorm or climate change made the triceratops go extinct doesn’t mean that the asteroid is not to blame. Perhaps the impact itself, some other of its effects, or a combination of the firestorm and climatic change together, caused the extinction.
24.
Which one of the following ███ ██████ █████████ ████ ███████ ██ ███ ██████ █████████ ██ ███ ████████ ██████
a
I know that ███ ██████ ████ ████ █████ ██████ ███ ███ ████ ██ █████ ███ ██████████ █ █████ ████ ██████ ████ ██ ███ ███ ████ ███ █████████ ██████ ██ █ █████ ████ ██████ ████ ██ ███ ███ ████ ████ █████ ██████ █████ █ █████ ████ ████ ███ ███ ███ ████ ████ █████ █████████
Wrong flaw. (A) concludes that two people are unlikely to be able to lift a piano together because they likely can’t lift it alone. This is flawed because their combined strength might help them lift the piano. The stimulus, however, concludes that we can’t say one thing caused another due to a lack of evidence, so (A) doesn’t match.
b
Since we are █████ ████ ████ █████ ███ ███ ███ ███ ████ ██████████ ██ ███ ███████ █████████ ██ ███ ██ █████ ████ ████ ██████ █████ ██ ███ ████ ███ ███ █████████ ██████████ ██████ ██ ████ ████ █████ ████ ███ ██ ██ ████ ████ ███ ████ ████
Wrong flaw. (B) provides evidence that one of two candidates will win an election, but this does not mean we know which one will win. The stimulus, however, concludes that we can’t say one thing caused another due to a lack of evidence, so (B) doesn’t match.
c
It has not ████ ████████████ ██████ ████ ███ ████████ ███ ██████ ██ ██████ ███████ ██ █████████ ███████ ███ ███ ██ ████ ████████████ ██████ ████ ███ ████████ ███ ███ ██████ ██ ██████ ███████ ███ ██ ███ █████ ██████ ██ ███ ████ ████████████ ██████ ████ ███ █████ ██ ███ ████████ ███ ███████ ██████ ███████ ██ █████████ ██████ ███ ██████ ███████ ███ ██ ███ █████
Wrong flaw. (C) does give us two different potential causes for an effect (speeding or reckless driving causing the accident) as well as a lack of evidence that either of them caused the effect, but the conclusion doesn’t match. We instead need some original cause for John’s speeding and reckless driving, then a conclusion stating that we can’t claim this original cause is to blame for John’s wreck.
d
The flooding in ███ ████████ ██████ ██████ ██ ███ ███████ ███ ████ ██████ █ █████ ██ ███ ██████████ ███████ ████ █████████████ █████ ███ ████ ████ ███ ██████ ██ ███ ███████ ██████ ███ ████ ████ ████████ ███████ █████ ███ █████████ ███ █████ ████ ████ ████ ███ ████ ███ ██████ ██ ███ █████ ██ ███ ██████████ ███████ ██████████ ██ ██████ █████ ████ ███ ████████ ██ ███ ████████ ██████ ███ █████
(D) presents a cause with two effects (a flood causing both damage to a furnace and an electrical short), a lack of evidence that either of those effects caused some third effect (a fire), and a conclusion stating that we can’t say the original cause led to the third effect. The stimulus has the same structure, so (D) matches.
e
We have good ██████ ██ ███████ ████ ███ █████ ██ ███ ████████ █████ ███ █████ ███ ███ █████████ ████ ██████ ██ ████ ████ ████ ██████ ██ ███████ ████ ███ █████ ██ ███ █████████ ████ █████ ███ ██████ ███ ███ ██ ███ █████ ██ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ████████ ████ ███ █████ ██ ███ ████████ ███ ██████ ███ ███ ██ ███ █████
No flaw. If the sun or moon likely caused the high tides, and the high tides likely caused the flooding, then it’s reasonable to claim that the sun or moon caused the flooding. The stimulus, meanwhile, is trying to claim that we can’t draw a causal conclusion about two events, so (E) doesn’t match.