Self-study
Support The odds of winning any major lottery jackpot are extremely slight. ████████ ███ ████ ███ ██████ ███ ██ ███ █████ ████████ ███████ █ █████ ████ ██ █████████ ████ ███ ██████ █████ █████ ████ ██████ ████ ██ ████ ██ █████ ████ █████████ ██ ██████ ████ ███████ █████████ █████ █████████ ██ ██ ██████ ████ ████ ██████ ███████ ████████████ ███ ████ ██ █████ ███████ █ █████ ████████
Summary
The author concludes that some people greatly overestimate their chances of winning the lottery jackpot. Why? The few jackpot winners are highly publicized by the media, and most people know at least a bit about highly publicized events.
Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that at least some people’s beliefs about their chances of winning the lottery can be influenced by the media, and that this influence is enough for them to greatly overestimate their chances.
21.
Which one of the following ██ ██ ██████████ ██ █████ ███ ████████ ████████
a
Most people who ████████████ ███ ██████████ ██ ███████ █ █████ ███████ ██ ██ ██ █████ ██ ████ ███████ █████ ████████ ██ █████ ██████ ███ ████ ███ █████ ████████ █████████ ███ ████ ███████ ███████ ████ █ ████████
The argument is not concerned with why people overestimate their odds—only that some people do. As such, whether or not the media is downplaying the odds of winning has no impact on the conclusion.
b
Very few people █████ ████ █████ ███ ███ █████ ████████ ███████ █ █████ ████ ██ █████████ ████ ███ ██████
Even if other figures like politicians and celebrities receive media attention, the argument is unaffected. It could still be the case that at least someone out there sees news coverage of a winner and overestimates their odds as a result, so this isn’t necessary.
c
If it were ███ ███ █████ ██████████ ████ ██████ ███ ████████ ███████ ███████ █████ ███ ████████████ █████ ███████ ██ ███████ █ ████████
If this said, “If it were not for media attention, some people would not overestimate their chances of winning a jackpot,” it would be necessary. As it stands, however, it is too strong.
d
Becoming aware of ███████████ ███ ████ ███ █ █████ ███████ █████ ██ █████ ████ ██████ ██ ███████████ ████████ █████ ███ ███████ ██ ███████ ████ █ ████████
The author assumes that some people’s beliefs about their chances of winning the lottery can be affected by news reports of winners, and (D) addresses that assumption. If we negate it to say that nobody is led to overestimate their chances of winning because of the media, the argument falls apart.
e
At least some ██████ ███ ███ ███████ ██████████ ██ ███ █████ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ███ ████ ██ █████ ███████ █ █████ ███████ ███ ████████████
This weakens the argument. We are looking for something that says people do overestimate their odds because of the media—not that some people don’t.