Self-study
A leading critic of space exploration contends that it would be wrong, given current technology, to send a group of explorers to Mars, since the explorers would be unlikely to survive the trip. ███ ████ ███████████ ███ █████ █████ █████ ██ █ ███████████████ ██████ ██████ ██ █████ █████ ██ ███ ████ ███ ███████████ ████████ █ █████ ███████████ ██ █████ ████████ ██ ███ █████ █████ ██ ████ █ ██████ ██████ ██ ██ ██████
Summarize Argument: Counter-Position
The author concludes that explorers to Mars would not be unlikely to survive the trip to Mars. This is based on the fact that there would be a well-engineered backup system at every stage of the trip. In addition, at each stage of the trip, a fatal accident is unlikely if the backup system is in place.
Identify and Describe Flaw
The author overlooks the possibility that the risk of a fatal accident for the trip overall is greater than 50%, even if the risk at each individual stage is less than 50%. In other words, the author overlooks the possibility that what is true about the part (having a less than 50% chance of accident) might not be true about the overall whole.
8.
The reasoning in the argument ██ ██████ ██ ████ ███ ████████
a
infers that something ██ ████ ██ █ █████ ██████ ████ ███ ████ ████ ██ ██ ████ ██ ████ ██ ███ █████
The argument infers that something is true of a whole (the trip will involve less than 50% chance of death) merely from the fact that it is true of each of the parts (each stage involves less than 50% chance of death).
b
infers that something ██████ █████ ██████ ████ ███ ████ ████ ██ ██ ████████ ██ █████
The conclusion is not that a fatal accident “cannot” occur. The conclusion is simply that it is unlikely to happen during a trip to Mars. Also, the premises do not establish that a fatal accident is unlikely to occur. That is the author’s flawed assumption based on the premises.
c
draws a conclusion █████ ████ ████ ██ ███ ████ █████ ██ ████████ █████ ████ ██ ████████ ███ ████
The conclusion is simply that a fatal accident is unlikely to happen. Also, the premises do not establish that a fatal accident probably won’t happen on the trip. That is the flawed assumption based on the premises about each stage.
d
infers that something ████ ████ ██████ ███████ ██ █████ ████
The author does not infer that anything “will” (as in, with 100% certainty) work. The conclusion is simply that a fatal accident is unlikely during the trip.
e
rejects a view ██████ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ██ ██████████ ████████ ███ ████ ████ ███ ██
The author does reject the view that people are unlikely to survive the trip, but not because of an inadequate argument in support of the view. The author’s premises involve the chance of death at each stage of the trip. This isn’t related to the weakness of an opposing argument.