Self-study
Support A survey of address changes filed with post offices and driver's license bureaus over the last ten years has established that households moving out of the city of Weston outnumbered households moving into the city two to one. ██████████ ██ ███ ██████ ████ ████ ██████ ███████ █████ ██████ ███ █████████ ██████████ ██ ████ ████ ████ ████ ███ ██████████ ██ ██████ ███ ████████ █████ ███ ████ ██████ ███ █████ ████
Summarize Argument
The author concludes that next year’s census will show that the population of Weston has declined in the last ten years. She supports this with a survey which found that twice as many households moved out of the city as moved in over the last ten years.
Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that the address change data from post offices and driver's license bureaus reliably shows the movement of all people in and out of Weston.
She also overlooks the fact that the survey tracks households, while the census counts individual people. She assumes that fewer people live in the city just because there are fewer households, but it's possible that small households left the city and large ones moved in.
16.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ █████ ██████████ ███ █████████
a
Within the past ██████ ████ ██████ ████ █████ ████ ███ ████ ███ ████ █████ ███ ██ ███
Just because “many” people moved into and out of the city tells us nothing about whether the population declined. (A) would only be helpful if it showed that many more people moved out of the city than moved into it.
b
Over the past ███████ ███ ██████ ██ ██████ ███████ █ ██████████ ████ ███ ████████ ███ █████ █████ ██ █ ██████ ███████ █ ██████████ █████
Irrelevant— the author is only arguing that the census will show a population decline over the last decade. How the population has risen and fallen over the last century has no impact on her argument.
c
Many people moving ████ ██████ ██████ ██ ██████ ██████ ███ ████ ██████ ██ ███ ████████ ███████ ██████ ████ ████ ███ █████ ██ ███ █████
If many people who moved into Weston are not counted in the survey from the post office and driver’s license bureau, this would potentially weaken the author’s argument that the population has declined.
d
Most adults moving ███ ██ ██████ ████ ███████ ███ ███ ████████ ██████ ████ █████ ███████ ████ ██████ █████████ ██ ██ ██████ ████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ██████ ███ █████ ██████
If large households moved out of Weston and small ones moved in, this makes it more likely that the population has actually declined. The census counts people, not households, and (D) suggests there may really be fewer people in Weston now, not just fewer households.
e
Most people moving ███ ██ ██████ ████ █████ ██████ ███ ████ ██████ ██ █████ █ ██████ ██████████ ███████ ████ ██████ █████████ ██ ██ ██████ ████ ███ ████ ███ █████████████ ████ ██ ███ █████
Irrelevant— the careers of people moving into or out of the city don’t matter. Instead, we need to know how many people moved into versus out of the city.