Self-study
Climatologist: Support Over the coming century, winter temperatures are likely to increase in the Rocky Mountains due to global warming. ████ ████ █████ █ ███████ ██████████ ██ █████████████ ██ ████ ██ ████ ███████ ██ █████ ██████████ ███ ████████ ████████ ████ ████████ ████ ████ ███████ ███ ███████ ██ ███ ███████ ███████ ██ ███████ ██████ ████████ ███ ████ ████████ █████ ██ ████ ██████ ████████
Summarize Argument
The author concludes that the mountain snowpack in the Rocky Mountains will probably melt more rapidly and earlier in the season, which will lead to greater spring flooding and less storable ater to meet summer demands. This is based on the fact that winter temperatures are likely to increase in the Rocky Mountains, and this will lead to a greater proportion of precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow.
Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that when a greater proportion of precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, that will cause the mountain snowpack to melt faster and earlier in the season. The author also assumes that faster and earlier melting of a snowpack will lead to more spring flooding and less storable water.
12.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ ███████████ ███ ███████████████ █████████
a
Global warming will ████████ █████ █ ███████████ ████████ ██ ███ ███████ ██████ ██ ██████ █████████████ ██ ███ █████ █████████ ████ ███ ██████ ████████
This tells us the overall amount of precipitation will increase. But that has nothing to do with the relative proportion of rain vs. snow, which we already know about. The premise isn’t about amount, it’s about proportion of rain vs. snow.
b
In other mountainous ███████ █████ ██████████ ████ ████████ ███ ███████ ██ █████████ ███ ███ ██ ███████ ██████ ████████ ███ ████ ████████ ██████ ██ ████████ ████ ██ █████ ███████████ ███████ █████ ██████ ████████
This give us examples of what the author predicts in the conclusion. The fact (B) is about other mountainous regions doesn’t make it irrelevant. It’s still evidence that after a warmer winter, snowpacks will melt faster/earlier, leading to more flooding and less storable water.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.
c
On average, in █████ ██ ███ █████ █████████ ██ █████ ███████ ███ ██████████ █████ █████ ██ ████ ████████ █████ ██ ████ ██████ ███████ ████ █████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ███ █████ █████████ ████ ██████████ ██████ ████████
This doesn’t help establish that mountain snowpacks will melt faster and earlier. It also doesn’t involve the same region after a warmer than usual winter. Contrast that with (B), which does involve a comparison within the same region after a warmer winter.
d
On average, in ███ ███████ ██ ███ █████ ████ ███ ███████ ████████ █████ ██ ████ ██████ ████████ ███ ████ ████████ █████ ████ ██ ███████ ██ ███ █████ ████ ████ ██████ ████████
This concerns regions of the world with the “mildest” winters. But we’re interested in what happens to a region when it has a milder than normal winter. This isn’t necessarily the “mildest.” (D) also doesn’t help establish snowpacks will melt faster and earlier.
e
The larger a ████████ ████████ ███ ███ ███████ ███ ██████ ██ ██████ ████████ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ██ ███████████ ███ ██████████
This creates a relationship between the size of a snowpack and the amount of flooding. But the premises don’t suggest the snowpack will be larger. The author predicts that the snowpack will melt faster and earlier because of the precipitation’s proportion of rain vs. snow.