Self-study
Viewers surveyed immediately after the televised political debate last year between Lopez and Tanner tended to think that Lopez had made the better arguments, but Conclusion the survey respondents who reported that Lopez's arguments were better may have been biased in favor of Lopez. █████ ████ █████ ██████████ ███ ███ ███ █████████
Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that the viewers responded that Lopez gave better arguments during a televised political debate may have been biased in favor of Lopez. This is based on the fact that Lopez eventually won the election.
Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that the fact Lopez eventually won the election suggests that the people thought Lopez’s arguments were better in the debate were biased. This overlooks the possibility that Lopez’s arguments were in fact better and convinced people to vote for him.
19.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ █████████ ██████████ ███ █████████
a
Most people who █████ ██ ███ ████████ ████ █████ ███ ███ ███ █████ ███ ███████
The author never assumed that most people who voted in the election watched the debate. There could have been a tiny number of people who watched the debate; the author simply thinks those people may have been biased toward Lopez.
b
Most people in ███ ████ ████████ ████████ ███ ██████ ███ ████ ████████ ███████████ █████████ ████ ████ ████ ███████ ████ ██████ ███ ████ ██████████ ██ ███ ██████ ████ ███ ██████
It’s not clear what live viewer reactions have to do with a survey of people who saw the debate on television. In any case, (B) is consistent with the author’s theory, since the survey respondents’ opinion about who won the debate still can be due to bias.
c
The people who ███████ ███ █████████ ██████ ████ ████ ██████ ██ ████ ███ ██████ ████ ████ ███ ██████ ███ ███ ███ █████ ███ ███████
This compares the likelihood of voting for Tanner among viewers and nonviewers. But what matters is whether the viewers were more likely to vote for Tanner or Lopez. (C) could just mean 1% of viewers were likely to vote for Tanner (as long as that is greater than for nonviewers).
Illusory inconsistency
Illusory inconsistency
Answer is attractive because it seems to (but doesn't actually) contradict the premises or conclusion.
d
Most of the ███████ ████████ ███████████ █████ ██ ███ ██████ ████ ████ ████ █████ ████████ ████ ███ ███████
This is strong evidence most viewers were not biased in favor of Lopez before the debate, which suggests bias was not the reason viewers of the debate said Lopez had better arguments.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.
e
Lopez won the ████████ ████ ██████ ██ █ ████ ██████ ███████
The narrow nature of the victory doesn’t change the fact Lopez won. The author never suggested that the victory was dominant or that the specific magnitude of the win affects the likelihood that viewers of the debate were biased.