PT141.S4.Q18

PrepTest 141 - Section 4 - Question 18

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Support So far this summer there has been no rain in the valley. ███ ███████ █ ███ ██████ ██ ████ ████ █████ ████ ███████ █████ ████ ███ ████ ██ ██████ ██ █████ ██ ████ ████████ ████ ██ ███ ██████ ██████ ███ ████ █████

Method of Reasoning

This argument says that in this valley, it usually rains a few inches every summer, but it has not rained yet, and only one week of summer remains. The argument concludes that it will probably rain in the valley within the next week.

Identify and Describe Flaw

This argument confuses possibility with probability. We know that, based on past summers, the valley gets a few inches of rain, so it is possible that it could rain during this year’s summer in the valley. However, concluding that it is likely to rain in the valley during the last week of summer is not supported. The author provided no reason to believe it is more likely to rain during this particular week of summer than any other. There could be some underlying reason for this year’s lack of rain, such as a drought, that would mean it is no more likely for rain to fall in this last week of the summer as opposed to any other week. Without providing any proof that the possibility of rain in the final week is actually probable, the conclusion is unsupported.

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18.

The flawed pattern of reasoning ██ ███ ████████ █████ ██ ████ ███████ ██ ████ ██ █████ ███ ██ ███ █████████ ██████████

a

Aisha has finished ████████████ ███ ███ ███ ████ ███ █████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ███ ███████ ████████ ███ ███ ███████████ ██ ███████ ████████ █████ ███ █████████ █ ███ ██████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ███ ███████ █████████ ██ █████ ███ ██ ██████ ██ ███ █████ ████ █████ ███ ███ ███ ████████

b

There are generally ███ ██████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ███ ███████ █████████ █████ ███ ████████ ████████████ ███ ███ ███ ████ ███ █████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ████ ███████ ███ ███ ███████████ ██ ███████ ██████ █████ ███ ████████ ██ ██████ ██ ███ █████ ████ █████ ███ ███ ███ ███████ ██ ████ █████ ██ ███ ████████

c

On average, there ███ █ ███ ██████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ███ ███████ █████████ █████ ███ ████████ ████████████ ███ ███ ███ ████ ███ █████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ████ ███████ ███ ███ ███████████ ██ ███████ ██ █████ ███ ████████ ██████ ██ ███ █████ ███ ███ ███ ███ ███████ ██ ████ █████ ██ ███ ████████

d

Aisha has proofread ███████ ██████ ██ ███ ███████ ████████ ███ ███ ███████████ ██ ███████ ███ █████ ███ ██████ ███ ██████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ████ ████████ ██ █████ ████ ████████ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ███ ████ █████ ██ ███ ███████ ████████ ████ ███ ███████████

e

There usually are ██████ ██ ████ █████ ██ ███ ███████ █████████ █████ █████ ███ ████████ ████████████ ███ ██████ █████ ██ ████ ███████ ███ ███ ████████ ██ ███████ █████ ███ ████████ ████ █ ███████ ██ ███ █████████████

Confirm action

Are you sure?