PT142.S4.Q20 > Question

SECTION 1 · lr

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SECTION 2 · lr

SECTION 3 · rc

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SECTION 4 · lr

The author concludes that global recessions can never be prevented. This is based on the following:

In order to prevent global recessions, it must be the case that those recessions are predictable.

Economist using the best techniques available consistently fail to predict global recessions.

The author assumes that the fact economists have not yet been able to predict global recessions implies that such recession are unpredictable. This overlooks the possibility that the recessions might be predictable, just not with the “best techniques at [the economists’] disposal.” Perhaps better techniques will be developed in the future that will predict recessions. More generally, the assumption is that past failures to predict show that prediction is impossible.

(A) describes circular reasoning. But the author’s conclusion is not assumed to be true in the premises. The conclusion is that recessions can never be prevented; this claim isn’t repeated in the premises.

The author didn’t need to establish this, because no part of the argument assumed that any economists claimed the ability to predict recessions.

The author didn’t argue that, because the necessary condition for preventability is met (predictability), that the thing (predictability) is sufficient for preventing recessions. Rather, the author assumes that the necessary condition for preventing recessions has not been met.

This possibility, if true, would show why economists might be able to predict recessions accurately in the future, even if they haven’t been able to so far using the best available techniques. (D) points out that past failures to predict do not imply that prediction is impossible.

The author doesn’t present any “information” that recessions are “not predictable.” He assumes they aren’t predictable, but this isn’t what the premises actually establish. Also, the conclusion is not that recessions won’t occur; it’s that they can’t be prevented.

PrepTest 142 - Section 4 - Question 20

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