Economist: Conclusion Global recessions can never be prevented, for Support they could be prevented only if they were predictable. ███ ███████████ █████ ███ ████ ██████████ ██ █████ █████████ ████████████ ████ ██ ██████████ ███████ ██████ ███████████
The economist concludes that global recessions can never be prevented. Here's the reasoning:
Premise 1: Recessions could be prevented only if they were predictable. In other words, predictability is a necessary condition for prevention.
Premise 2: Economists, using the best techniques at their disposal, consistently fail to accurately predict global recessions.
Premise 1 would allow the author to establish that recession can't be prevented if he can establish that recessions can't be predicted. But do we actually know that recessions aren't predictable? The second premise tells us that economists have failed to predict recessions using their current best techniques. That's not the same thing as establishing that recessions are unpredictable. It's possible that they can be predicted, but just haven't been in the past.
Because this is a Flaw question, we know the conclusion doesn't logically follow from the premises. The economist assumes that because economists have failed to predict recessions so far, recessions are unpredictable. But past failure doesn't prove permanent impossibility. "Hasn't been done" and "can't be done" are very different claims, and the argument doesn't give us enough to bridge that gap.
Analysis by Kevin_Lin
The economist's argument is most ██████████ ██ ███ █████████ ████ ██
presupposes in a ███████ ███ ██████████ ████ ██ ████████ ██ █████████
fails to establish ████ ██████████ █████ ██ ██ ████ ██ ██████████ ███████ ██████ ██████████
treats the predictability ██ ██ ██████ █████ ██ ████████ ███ ███ █████ ██ ██ ████████████ ██ █ ██████████████ ████ ███████ ███ ██████████
fails to address ███ ███████████ ████ ███ ██████████ █████████ ██ ██████████ ███ ███ ██████████ ██ ██████ ██████████ ████ █████████████ ███████
implicitly bases an █████████ ████ █████████ ████ ███ █████ ██████ ██ ███ ███████████ ████ ███ ██████████ ██ ███ ███████████