Self-study
Advertisement: Support In a recent survey, a sample representative of all new Popelka Auto Insurance policyholders reported savings of $250 a year, on average, as a result of switching their auto insurance coverage to Popelka. █████ ████ ██████ ███ ████ ████ █████████ ████████ ████ █████ █████████ █████ ████ ████████ ██ ███████ ██ █████████ ██ ████████
Summarize Argument
The author concludes that most people who hold insurance politics with other companies besides Popelka can save hundreds of dollars by switching to Popelka. This is based on the fact that a survey of new Popelka policyholders reported savings of, on average, $250 per year as a result of switching to Popelka.
Identify and Describe Flaw
The author assumes that the new Popelka policyholders (the ones who had switched from other insurance companies) are representative of people who hold insurance policies with other companies. This overlooks the possibility that the ones who switched to Popelka are the ones who had the opportunity to save money by switching. The people who haven’t switched yet might be people who can’t save by switching.
20.
The argument in the advertisement ██ ████ ██████████ ██ █████████ ██ █████ ███ ██ ███ █████████ ████████
a
It overlooks the ███████████ ████ ██ █████ ████ ██ ███ ███ ███████ ████ █████████ █████████████ ████████ ████████ ████ ████ █████ ██████ ██ ██ █████ ████ ████ ████████ █████ ████ █████████ ████████ ██ ████████
The survey reports savings “on average.” An average recognizes the possibility of outliers. So some people might not have saved money by switching; this doesn’t change the fact that new policyholders on average did save $250 per year.
b
It takes for ███████ ████ ███ ███ ███████ ████ █████████ █████████████ ███ ██ ████ ███ █████ ████ ██████████ ██ ████████ ████ ██ ██████ ███ ████ ████ ███████ ████ █████████ ████████ ███ █ ██████ ██████ ██ █████
The argument doesn’t compare how much new policyholders pay with how much longer, non-new policyholders pay.
c
It fails to ███████ ██████████ ███ ███████████ ████ █████████ ██ ███████ █████████ ███████ █████ ██████ ████ ████ █████████ █████████████ ██ ████ ████ ████ █████ ████ ████ █████ ████ ██ █████████ ██ ████████
The conclusion isn’t that switching to Popelka will help people save the most compared to switching to other companies. The conclusion is only that switching to Popelka will help people save money. Whether switches to other companies save more has no impact on the argument.
d
It takes for ███████ ████ ███ ██ ███ ██ ███ ███████ ████ █████████ █████████████ ████████ ██████████████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ████ ████ ████████ █████ ████ █████████ ████████ ██ ████████
The argument’s reasoning isn’t based on the estimates of policyholders before they made the switch. Maybe everyone underestimated how much they’d save and found that they ended up saving more than expected; this wouldn’t undermine the argument.
e
It fails to ███████ ██████████ ███ ███████████ ████ ██████ ███████ ██ ██████ ████████ ██ ███████ ██ █████████ █████ ████ █████████ ████████ ██ ███████ ███ ██████████████████ ███████████ █████ ███ ███ ███████ ████ █████████ ██████████████
This possibility shows that the savings achieved by the new Popelka policyholders might not be achievable by most people who are with other companies. The survey’s results are based on a sample that can save more, on average, than other people would save by switching.