Self-study
Monroe, despite his generally poor appetite, thoroughly enjoyed the three meals he ate at the Tip-Top Restaurant, but, unfortunately, Support after each meal he became ill. ███ █████ ████ ██ ███ ██ ███████████ ███████ █████ ████ █ ████ █████ ██ ███ ████████ ███ ██████ ████ ██ ████ ████ █████████ ██ ███ ███████████████ █████ ██████ ███ ███ ███████ ████████ ███ ███ █████ ████ ██ ███ ███ ██ ███████████ █████ ████████ ██████████ ████ ███ ████████ █████ ███ ████ ████ ███ █████ █████ ███ ██ ██████ ███ ███ ███ ████████ ██████ █████████ ████ ██ ██ ██████ ███ ██ ███████████ ███ ███████ ████ ██ ██████ ████
Argument Breakdown
Monroe, who usually doesn't eat much, has fallen ill three times after eating at the Tip-Top Restaurant. He concludes that his three bouts of illness were fully attributable to the hot peppers at the Tip-Top Restaurant. Monroe's evidence for this is that all three meals he ate before falling ill contained hot peppers, and this was the only ingredient they had in common.
Monroe is making a causal argument, based on an observed correlation. We know for a fact that Monroe ate these meals just before falling ill, and that hot peppers were the only ingredient the meals had in common. That's the correlation that Monroe uses to establish a causal relationship: that hot peppers caused his illness.
20.
Monroe’s reasoning is most vulnerable ██ █████ ███ ██ ███ █████████ ███████████
a
He draws his ██████████ ██ ███ █████ ██ ███ ███ █████ ████ ████ ████████ ██ ███████ ███ ████ ████████ ███ ████████
Although in some situations three data points might not be enough, here there's no reason to think Monroe has an insufficient sample. It's pretty unusual to get sick three meals in a row. If Monroe had only eaten one meal at Tip-Top, (A) could be correct.
b
He posits a ██████ ████████████ ███████ ████████████ ████ ███ ████████ █████ ████████ ███ ████████ ███████
(B) doesn't describe the argument: the presumed cause (eating hot peppers) in Monroe's argument did precede the effect (becoming ill). Monroe ate hot peppers, then he became ill. The order of the events is consistent with the peppers causing the illness.
The issue with the argument is that we only have indirect evidence of the peppers causing Monroe's illness. However, peppers preceding illness is a legitimate (although indirect) piece of evidence, and relying on that isn't a flaw.
c
He allows his ██████ ██ ████████ ██████ ██ ███████ ██ ████ ███ ███████████
Nothing in the stimulus suggests that Monroe is twisting the facts to justify his continued patronage of Tip-Top.
d
He fails to █████████ ████ ████████ ███ ███ ███████████ ███ ███████ ██████ ████
Establishing that everyone else who ate these peppers became ill isn't important to the argument, because the argument is just about Monroe's illness. Even if Monroe is the only person in the world who falls ill from these peppers, the peppers could still be the cause of his illness.
e
He overlooks the ████ ████ ██ ███ █████ █████ ██ ████████ ████ ████ ███ ████ ██ █████████ █████ ████████ ██ █████
(E) describes a alternative possible cause of Monroe's illness, which Monroe does in fact overlook. We know that Monroe usually doesn't eat much, so overeating could have been what made him ill. Because this possibility undermines the causal link between peppers and Monroe's illness, overlooking it is a flaw.