Self-paced
Each year, an official estimate of the stock of cod in the Grand Banks is announced. ████ ████████ ██ ████████ ██ █████████ ███ ████████ █████████ ██ ███ ████ ███ ███ ██████████ ███ █████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ████████ ███████ ██████ █ ███████████ ████████ ██ ███ ████ ███ ███ █████ ██ ███ ███████ ██████ ██ ████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ███████ ██████████ ███████ ███ ████ ██ ███████ ██████ ████████ █████ ██ ███ ████ ████████ ████ ██ ███████ ██████ █████ ███ █████████ ██ ███ ███ ███ ██ ███ █████ ███ ███ █████ ██ ████████ ████████ ███ ███ █████████ ███████ ██████ ████████ ████████ ███ ███ ████ ██████ ███ ████████ █████ ██ ██████████ ███████ ███ ████ ██████████ █████████ ██ █████ ███ ████ ██████ ██ ███ ██████████████ ████████ ███ ████ ███████████
Diamond In The Rough
With the benefit of hindsight, here are the claims from the stimulus that matter for the answer choices:
- The official estimate is the average of the research estimate and the commercial estimate.
- The commercial estimate is based on how easy it is to catch cod (weight caught per effort-unit), and has gone up these past 10 years.
- The research estimate is based on how many cod scientists catch, and has gone down about the same amount these past 10 years.
Testwriters commonly make questions more difficult by dumping a bunch of additional facts into the stimulus that don’t get used. But the answer really could come from anywhere, so you still need to read and understand every claim no matter how unimportant it seems.
18.
If the statements in the ███████ ███ █████ █████ ███ ██ ███ █████████ ██ ████ ████████ █████████ ██ █████
a
Last year’s official ████████ ███ ████████ ███ ████ █████████ ████ ███ ████████ ████████ ███ █████ ████
Over the past decade, the commercial estimate has gone up and the research estimate has gone down by about the same amount. These changes cancel each other out when we’re averaging the two.
The average of 9 and 11 is 10. The average of 8 and 12 is 10. The average of 5 and 15 is 10.
b
The number of ██████████ ███████ ███████ ███ ███ ██ ███ █████ █████ ███ █████████ █████████████ ████ ███ ████ ███████
Easy to miss detail: the commercial estimate measures the average tons of cod caught
c
The sampling-based estimate ██ ████ ████████ ████ ███ ████████ █████ ██ ██████████ ███████ ██ ████ ███ ████ ██ █████ ██ ██████ ██ ████ ██████ ██ ██ ███████████
To support a judgment about accuracy, the stimulus would need an anchor point in the actual stock of cod. Instead, we only have information about 1) how the estimates are obtained, and 2) what their recent outcomes have been.
d
The once-yearly sampling ██ ████████ ███████ ██████ ██ ████ ██ ███ ████ █████ ███ ████████ ██ ███ ████████ ████████ ██ ███ █████ ██ ████
(D) dies immediately at the word “should,” which attempts to draw a value judgment from the stimulus’ purely descriptive claims.
e
Twenty years ago, ███ ███████ █████ ██ ███ ██ ███ █████ █████ ███ ██████████ █████████ ██ ██ ████ ██████ ████ ██ ██ █████████ ██ ██ ██████
As discussed in (A), our information from the past decade indicates that the official estimate hasn’t changed much in that time. As for