Self-study
Legislator: Conclusion The recently passed highway bill is clearly very unpopular with voters. █████ ████ █████ ███████ ████ ███ ████████ ██████ █████ █████████ ███ ██████ ████████ ████ ████ ████ ████ █ █████ █████ ██ ███ ████████ █████████
Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The legislator hypothesizes that voters don’t like the highway bill. She bases this on a correlation: the majority party both supported the bill’s passage and is predicted to lose more than a dozen seats in the upcoming election.
Identify and Describe Flaw
This is a “correlation doesn’t imply causation” flaw, where the legislator sees a correlation and concludes that one thing causes the other without ruling out alternative hypotheses. Specifically, she overlooks two key alternatives:
(1) The causal relationship could be reversed—maybe the majority party’s unpopularity caused them to support the highway bill. Maybe the party supported the popular highway bill as a result of their poor poll performance!
(2) Some other factor could be causing the correlation—maybe the majority party is unpopular for other reasons and they also happen to support the highway bill!
12.
The reasoning in the legislator’s ████████ ██ ████ ██████████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ███ ████████
a
gives no reason ██ █████ ████ ███ █████████ ████████ ███████ █████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ████████ █████ ███ ███ █████████ ███ ████
This describes the legislator’s cookie-cutter “correlation proves causation” error. The legislator fails to establish that the majority party’s support of the bill is what caused the predicted election outcome. What if the party is unpopular for entirely unrelated reasons?
b
focuses on the ██████████ ██ ███ ████ ██ ███ █████████ ██ ███ █████
The bill’s merit is not relevant to the legislator’s argument. She is focused on the bill’s popularity, not its actual content.
c
infers that the ████ ██ █████████ ████ █ █████ ████ ███████████ ███ ████████████
The legislator does not presuppose the bill’s unpopularity; rather, she attempts to demonstrate it by introducing the information that a party that supported the bill is itself unpopular. (C) describes a “circular reasoning” flaw, which is not the error the legislator commits.
d
takes for granted ████ ███ ████ ██ █████████ ████ ███████ ███ ██████████ ██████ ██ ██ ██ █████████
The legislator gives no indication that she wishes the bill to be unpopular. For all we know, she could be a member of the majority party and a supporter of the bill!
e
bases its conclusion ██ ███ █████ ██ ██████ ███████ ████████████ █████ ████████ █████████ ██ ███ ██████ ████████
The legislator’s conclusion is entirely about voters’ views, regardless of the merits of these views or the voters’ qualifications to hold them. Her argument doesn’t rely at all on establishing the voters’ relevant expertise, so it doesn’t matter that she does not do this.