Self-study
CEO: While we only have the sales reports for the first 9 months of this year, I feel confident in concluding that Conclusion this will be a good year for us in terms of sales. ██ ████ ██ ███ ████ █ ██████ ███ ███████ █████ ███████ ███ ████ ████ ███ ████████ ████████ ███ ███████ █████ ███████ ██ ███ ███ ████ ████ ██ ████ ███ ████████
Summarize Argument
The CEO concludes that this will be a good year for sales, based on sales reports for the first 9 months of the year. He supports this by pointing out that the company’s monthly sales average so far this year is over $35 million, compared to a monthly sales average of less than $30 million in each of the last 5 years.
Notable Assumptions
The CEO assumes that the monthly sales average from the first 9 months of the year are representative and accurately predict the entire year’s average performance. He assumes that sales will not significantly drop during the last 3 months of the year, without considering seasonal changes or other factors that could affect end-of-year sales.
1.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ ███████████ ███ ███████ █████████
a
The CEO’s company █████████ ███ ███ ███████ ███████ █████ ██ ███ ████ ██████ ███ ████ █ ██████ ██ ███ █████
This strengthens the CEO’s conclusion by addressing the assumption that sales won’t drop in the last 3 months. If sales are usually highest during this time, it's likely that the company’s sales trend will continue, leading to a strong overall year.
b
The quality of ███ ████████ ████ ██ ███ ███████ ███████ ███ ██████ ████ ██████████ ██ ██ ██████████ █████
Irrelevant— the CEO’s argument is only concerned with the company’s average monthly sales. The fact that the company’s products have always been high quality doesn't tell us anything about its monthly sales for the last 3 months of this year.
c
The CEO has █ ██████ █████████ ██ █████████ ███ ████ ████ █████████ ███ ███████ ███ ██ ████████ ███ █████
This may explain why the CEO is motivated to predict a good year in sales, but it doesn’t help to strengthen his argument.
d
The CEO’s company ███████ █ ███ ███████████ ████████ ██ ███ █████████ ██ ████ ████ ████ ███ ██████ █████████ █████████ ██ ████
This may help to explain the higher sales over the first 9 months of the year, but we don’t know whether that trend will continue through the last 3 months of the year.
e
Several other companies ███ ████ ████████ ███████ ██ █████ ████ ██ ███ ███████ ███████ ████ ████ ████████ ████ ████ ████████ ███████ █████ ████████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ██████ ████ ████████ ████████ █████████
Like (C), this doesn't strengthen the argument because it doesn’t address the assumption that the first 9 months’ sales can be used to predict the entire year’s average performance.