PT154.S2.Q21

PrepTest 154 - Section 2 - Question 21

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Support A study of 30 years of weather pattern records of several industrialized urban areas found that weekend days tend to be cloudier than weekdays. ████ ██ ███ ██ ██████ ██ ██████ ████ █████ ████████ ███ ████████████ ███████████ ███████ ██ ████████ ███████ ███ ███ █████████ ██████ ████ █████ █████████ ███ ██ ███ ██████ ████████████ ██ █████ ██████████ ███████ █████████

Process of Elimination

A 30-year study of industrialized urban areas found that weekend days tend to be cloudier than weekdays. The author uses this finding to conclude that human activity has appreciable, large-scale effects on weather.

How does the author get there? Process of elimination. The observed weather pattern follows a 7-day cycle (cloudier on weekends, clearer on weekdays). What could cause a 7-day cyclical weather pattern? Well, the author tells us that naturally occurring 7-day cycles are too insignificant to cause measurable weather patterns. So natural 7-day cycles are out. What's left? The author thinks it must be human activity. The author treats this as the only remaining explanation.

The Gap in the Elimination

The author's process-of-elimination has a gap in it. The author eliminates natural 7-day cycles as the cause of a 7-day weather pattern. But she's assuming that only a cause with a 7-day cycle could produce a weather pattern with a 7-day cycle. What if that's not true?

Imagine a natural phenomenon that operates on a 3.5-day cycle. Two of those cycles back to back produce a 7-day pattern. Or imagine two separate natural cycles (say, a 3-day cycle and a 4-day cycle) that interact to produce effects that repeat every 7 days. Neither of those is a "seven-day cycle," so the author's premise about seven-day cycles being insignificant wouldn't eliminate them. But they could still explain the observed pattern.

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21.

Which one of the following ██ ██ ██████████ ██ █████ ███ ████████ ████████

a

Industrial activity tends ██ ████████ █████████████ ██ ███████ ████ ██ ███ █████ █████ █████ ████████

b

There are no █████████ █████████ █████████ ██████ ██ ███ █████ ████████

c

If living organisms ████ ██ ███████████ ███████████ ██████ ██ ███████ █████████ ████ ████ ██ ███ ██ █████ ██████ ██ ███ ███████ ██ █████ █████████

d

If something appreciably ███████ ███████████ ███████ █████████ ██ ██ ████████ ████████ ██ ███████

e

If a weather ███████ ████ █ ███████ █████ ███ █ █████████ ██████ ████ ████ █████ ███ █ █████████ ██████

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