Support A study of 30 years of weather pattern records of several industrialized urban areas found that weekend days tend to be cloudier than weekdays. ████ ██ ███ ██ ██████ ██ ██████ ████ █████ ████████ ███ ████████████ ███████████ ███████ ██ ████████ ███████ ███ ███ █████████ ██████ ████ █████ █████████ ███ ██ ███ ██████ ████████████ ██ █████ ██████████ ███████ █████████
A 30-year study of industrialized urban areas found that weekend days tend to be cloudier than weekdays. The author uses this finding to conclude that human activity has appreciable, large-scale effects on weather.
How does the author get there? Process of elimination. The observed weather pattern follows a 7-day cycle (cloudier on weekends, clearer on weekdays). What could cause a 7-day cyclical weather pattern? Well, the author tells us that naturally occurring 7-day cycles are too insignificant to cause measurable weather patterns. So natural 7-day cycles are out. What's left? The author thinks it must be human activity. The author treats this as the only remaining explanation.
The author's process-of-elimination has a gap in it. The author eliminates natural 7-day cycles as the cause of a 7-day weather pattern. But she's assuming that only a cause with a 7-day cycle could produce a weather pattern with a 7-day cycle. What if that's not true?
Imagine a natural phenomenon that operates on a 3.5-day cycle. Two of those cycles back to back produce a 7-day pattern. Or imagine two separate natural cycles (say, a 3-day cycle and a 4-day cycle) that interact to produce effects that repeat every 7 days. Neither of those is a "seven-day cycle," so the author's premise about seven-day cycles being insignificant wouldn't eliminate them. But they could still explain the observed pattern.
Analysis by Kevin_Lin
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