Self-study
In a poll conducted by interviewing eligible voters in their homes just before the recent election, incumbent candidate Kenner was significantly ahead of candidate Muratori. ████████████ ████████ ███ ███ ██████ █████████
"Surprising" Phenomenon
Why did Muratori win the election if Muratori was significantly behind Kenner in polling conducted in the homes of eligible voters just before the election?
Objective
The right answer will be a hypothesis that addresses something that wasn’t captured by the polling conducted in the homes of eligible voters just before the election. The thing that wasn’t captured could be something that changed after the poll or that the poll didn’t cover.
22.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ █████ ██ ███████ ███ ████████ ███████████ █████████ ██ ███ ██████████ ██████
a
The positions taken ██ ████████ ███ ██████ ██ ████ ████████ ██████ ████ ███ ████ ███████ ██ ████ ██████
The positions taken by Muratori and Kenner are irrelevant. We know Kenner was significantly ahead of Muratori in polling conducted in the homes of eligible voters right before the election, so we need an answer that addresses why the election results didn’t follow this polling.
b
Kenner had held ███████ ██████ ███ ████ █████ ██████ ███ ██████ █████████
Kenner holding elected office in the years before the election tells us nothing about why the polling conducted immediately before the election wasn’t representative of the election results.
c
In the year ███████ ██ ██ ███ █████████ ██████ ███ ██████████ ██ █ ██████ ██ █████████ █████████
Even with Kenner being implicated in scandals in the year leading up to the election, Kenner was ahead in polling immediately before the election. We need to know why that polling didn’t reflect the election outcome.
d
Six months before ███ ██████ █████████ ███ ██████ ███ ███ ███████ ██ █████ ██████
The polling mentioned in the stimulus occurred immediately before the election and covered eligible voters, so voters made eligible six months before the election would’ve been considered by the polling. The polling accounts for (D).
e
In the poll, ██████████ ██ ████████ ████ ████ ██████ ████ ██████ ██ ████████ ███ ████████ ██ ██████████
If (E) is true, Kenner’s supporters were less likely to consider the election important and thus probably less likely to vote. The poll in the stimulus showing Kenner had more supporters than Muratori doesn’t capture this, which could lead to the poll being inaccurate.