Self-study
Conclusion The fact that people who exercise vigorously are sick less often than average does not prove that vigorous exercise prevents illness, for Support whether one exercises vigorously or not depends in part on one's preexisting state of health.
The Reasoning Pattern
The author observes a correlation: people who exercise vigorously are sick less often. You might look at that and think vigorous exercise must prevent illness. But the author says not so fast. The reason you can't draw that conclusion is that
The reasoning pattern here is:
- Correlation: A and B tend to go together.
- Someone might conclude: A causes B.
- Author's response: That conclusion isn't proven, because B could cause A instead (reverse causation).
We need to find an answer that follows this same pattern: a correlation is observed, and the author argues that the correlation doesn't prove a particular causal relationship by pointing out the causation could run the other way.
23.
The reasoning in which one ██ ███ █████████ █████████ ██ ████ ███████ ██ ████ ██ ███ ████████ ██████
a
Having strong verbal ██████ ██████████ ██████ ██ ████ █████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ████████ ███████ ████ ██ ██ ████████ ███████ ████ ███ █████ ████ ███████ ████████ ██████ ██████
This matches the pattern. There's a correlation: habitual readers tend to be verbally skilled. Someone might conclude that reading produces verbal skill (reading causes skill). But the author argues that the correlation doesn't prove that causal relationship, because the causation could be reversed: having strong verbal skills encourages people to read more (skill causes reading). This is the same structure as the stimulus, where a correlation is observed, and the author rejects a potential causal conclusion by offering reverse causation as an alternative.
b
Musical and mathematical ██████ ███ █████ ████████ ██ ███ ████ ██████ ███ ██████████ ████████ █████████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ████ ██████████████ ███ ███ ███████ █████████ ████ ███ █████ ████ ████ ████ ███ ██████ ████ ███ ███████ ███████ ██████
This doesn't involve questioning a causal conclusion by raising the possibility of reverse causation. Instead, it starts with a shared underlying cause (talent for perceiving abstract patterns) and uses that to explain why the absence of one skill (musical ability) doesn't prove the absence of the underlying talent.
c
Since how people ██████ ██ █████ █████ ███████ ██ ███ █████ ███████ ██████ ███ ████ ████ █ ██████ ███████ █ █████ ██ █████ ████ ███ █████ ████ ██ ██ ███ █████ ███████ ████ █████ ██ ███ ██████
This argues that a person's choice of dress doesn't prove a genuine preference, because social influence (how friends dress) affects the choice. While this does involve questioning whether an observed behavior proves what it seems to, the author isn't identifying a correlation between two things and raising the possibility of reverse causation. There's no "A and B go together, but maybe B causes A instead of A causing B" structure here.
d
The fact that ██████ ████████ █████ ██████████ █████ ████████ ██ ██████████ ████ ███ ████ ████ ██████ ██ █ ████████ █████████ ██ ███████████ ███ ██████ ████████ ████ ██ ████ ██████████ ████ ██████████ ████ ██ █████ █████████
This is tempting because it does involve a correlation (taller children outperform at basketball) and a causal conclusion being questioned (height is a decisive advantage). But the reason the conclusion is questioned is different from the stimulus. (D) points out a third factor: taller children play more frequently, which could explain their better performance. That's an alternative cause, not reverse causation. In the stimulus, the author doesn't introduce a third factor. She suggests that the presumed effect (health) might actually be the cause (health leads to exercise, not the other way around).
e
The fact that ███ ████████ ████ ███████ ████████ ████ ███ █████████ ████ ████ ████ ███ ████ ██████████ ██████ ███ ██████████ ██████ ███ ████ ███████ ████████
This argues that similar symptoms don't prove a shared underlying cause, because different causes can produce similar symptoms. This is about the relationship between symptoms and causes, not about questioning the direction of a causal relationship between two correlated phenomena. There's no reverse causation here.