Self-study
Some statisticians believe that the method called extreme value theory (EVT) is a powerful analytical tool. ███ ██████ █████████ ██ ███████████ ███████████ ███████ ██ ███████ █████████ ████ ██ █████ █████████ ███████ ████ ████ ██████ █████ ████ ██████ ███ ██████ █████████ ██ ███ ██████ ███ ██████████ ████████ ███ █████ ██ █████ ████ █████ ██ ████████ ███████ ███ ███ ███ ██████ ██ █████ ██ ███ ███ █████ ██████ ███ █████ ██████ █████████ ██ ███ █████████
Summary
Traditional statistical methods predicted that some humans would live over 130 years.
EVT methods estimated the human lifespan limit to be between 113 and 124 years.
No human has lived beyond the EVT predicted limit.
Very Strongly Supported Conclusions
EVT estimates are more in line with the data on the longest living humans than are traditional statistical methods.
11.
Which one of the following ███ ██ ████████ ████████ ████ ███ ██████████ ██████
a
EVT is, in ████████ █ ████ ████████ ██████ ███ ██████████ ██████ ██████ █████ ██ ████ ████████████ ████ ███ ███████████ ███████████ ████████
Unsupported. Like (E), the stimulus is only addressing each method’s analysis of data on human longevity. We can’t infer that EVT is a more reliable method in general for projecting any future trends.
b
EVT fits the ████ █████ ███ ███████ ████████ █████ ████ █████ ████ ███████ ████ ██ ███████████ ███████████ ████████
Very strongly supported. EVT predicted a life span limit of 113-124 years, while traditional methods predicted a limit of over 130 years. Since the highest observed human life span is shorter than the EVT predicted limit, EVT fits the data more closely.
c
According to the ████████ ███████ ███████ ███ ███ ██ ████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██████████ ███ ███ █████ █████ ██ ████ ██████ ████ ███ ██████
Unsupported. Like (D), just because no one has lived longer than 124 years so far doesn’t mean that no one ever will. The EVT findings are just describing a statistically probable limit based on data; they aren’t implying that it’s physically impossible to live longer.
d
Given the results █████████ ██ ████ █████ ██ ██ █████ ██ ██████████ ████████ █████ ██ ███████ █████████ ███ █████ █████ ██ █████ ████ ██████
Unsupported. Like (C), just because no one has lived longer than 124 years so far doesn’t mean that no one ever will or that researching longer lifespans is pointless.
e
Traditional statistical methods ██ █████████ ████ ████████ ██████ ██████████ ██ ████████ ██ ████ ███████ ██ ████
Unsupported. Like (A), the stimulus is only addressing each method’s analysis of data on human longevity. We don’t have enough information about either method’s overall accuracy to infer that EVT should entirely replace traditional methods.