Self-study
If Skiff's book is published this year, Professor Nguyen vows she will urge the dean to promote Skiff. █████ ██ ███████ ████ ██ ██ █████████ ███ ██ ████ ███████ ██ █████ ███████ ██ ████ ██ █████████ ███ ██████ ████ █████████ ████ ███ ████████ ███ ███ ████ ████ ██████ ███████ █████ ██ ██████ ██████████ ███
Summary
If the book is both as important and as well written as Skiff says, he’ll get a promotion. Why? Because as long as the book is published this year, Nguyen will certainly urge the dean to promote Skiff, in which case the dean will surely do so.
We can simplify the conditional conclusion by kicking up the sufficient condition and taking for granted that yes, the book is as important and as well written as claimed.
Missing Connection
The conclusion is that a promotion is certain given that the book is as important and well-written as claimed, but the premises are all about how a promotion is certain if the book is published this year.
The premises would lead to the conclusion if we knew that as long as the book is as important and/or as well written as claimed, it will be published this year.
21.
The argument's conclusion can be ████████ ████████ ██ █████ ███ ██ ███ █████████ ██ ████████
a
Skiff's book will ██ █████████ ████ ████ ██ ██ ██ ██ █████████ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ███
The book being as important as claimed becomes a sufficient condition, all on its own, for promotion. So we can now validly conclude that, yes, if the book is as important as claimed (and it also happens to be as well written as claimed), Skiff gets the promotion.
b
Skiff needs to ███████ █ ████ ██████ ██ ███ ██ █████████
This says that publishing is necessary for promotion. But we still know nothing about whether the book’s being as important and as well written as claimed will in any way lead to a promotion. So the conclusion doesn’t follow.
c
Professor Nguyen believes ████ ███████ ████ ██ ████ ████████
What Nguyen believes is irrelevant. All that matters about Nguyen is whether he urges the dean to promote Skiff. We know Nguyen will do so as long as the book is published this year. Any other facts about Nguyen have no effect on the argument.
d
Skiff's book will ███ ██ █████████ ██████ ██ ██ ██ █████████ ███ ██ ████ ███████ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ███
This says that to be published this year—or ever—the book must be as important and as well written as claimed. But there’s still no indication that being that important and well written will be sufficient to get it published. So the conclusion doesn’t follow.
e
Skiff will not ██ ████████ ██████ █████████ ██████ █████ ███ ████ ██ ██ ███
This means that Nguyen’s recommendation is necessary (as well as sufficient) for Skiff’s promotion. But we still know nothing about whether the book’s being as important and as well written as claimed will in any way lead to a promotion. So the conclusion doesn’t follow.