Self-study
Zoologist: In the Lake Champlain area, as the North American snowshoe hare population grows, so do the populations of its predators. ██ ████████ ███████ █████████ ███ █████ ████ ████ ██ ████ ███████ ████████ ██████ █████ ███████ ████ █████ ███ ██ ███ ████ ██████████ █████████ ████████ ███████████ ████ ████████ ███ ████ ██████████ ██████ ██ █████████ ███ ███ █████ ██████ ██████ ███ █████ █████ █████ ██████ ███████ ███ ███████████ ██ ████████ █████ ██████████ ██████ ██████████████ ██ ████ ████████ ████ █████ ███ ████ ██████████ █████ ██ ████ ██████████ ████ ███ ███████ █████ ██ ███████ █████████ ████ ████████ ██ ████████ █ ██████ ██████ ██ █████
Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that susnpot activity is probably a causal factor in the size of hare populations. This is because the hare population cycle between larger and smaller sizes is correlated with the regular cycle of sunspot activity.
Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that the correlation between sunspot activity and hare population cycles isn’t just coincidence.
16.
Each of the following, if █████ ████████ ███ ███████████ █████████ ███████
a
Reproduction in predator ███████████ █████████ ████ ███████ ████████ ██████████ ███████ ████████ █████████ ██████████ ████ █████████████
This strengthens by providing a potential causal mechanism between sunspots and hare populations. The sunspots might affect predator populations, and the predator populations would in turn affect hare populations.
Causal mechanism
Causal mechanism
Answers that undermine, or help establish, the practical story of how an alleged cause could produce the alleged effect.
b
Local weather patterns ████ ███ ██████ ████████ ██████████ ███████ ███ █████ ████ ██ ███ ████████ ██ ███████ ████████ ███ ██ ███ ████████
This doesn’t strengthen because it doesn’t provide any reason to think the sunspot activity has any causal relationship with hare populations. We have no reason to think these weather patterns are correlated with sunspots.
c
Brighter light during ███████ ████████ ██████ ███ █████████████ ████████ ███ ███████ ██ █████████ ██ ██████ ███ ███████ ██████
This strengthens by providing a causal mechanism between sunspots and hare populations. The sunspots can affect predator ability to hunt, which in turn affects hare populations.
Causal mechanism
Causal mechanism
Answers that undermine, or help establish, the practical story of how an alleged cause could produce the alleged effect.
d
The variation from █████ ██ █████ ██ ███ █████████ ██ ███ █████ ███ ████ ██ ████████ ████ ███████████ ██ ██████ ██████████ ████ ██████████ ████ █████ ██ █████ ██ ███ █████████ ██ █████ ███ ████ ██ ███████ █████████
This strengthens by strengthening the correlation between sunspots and hare populations. Not only are these two things generally correlated, but (D) now tells us that the specific degree of population increase/decrease is correlated with the degree of sunspot intensity.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.
e
Sunspot activity is ██████████ ████ █████████ ███ █████████ ██ ███ ███████████ █████ ██ ██████████ █████ ██ ███ ██████
This strengthens by providing a potential causal mechanism. Sunspots may have an effect on the nutritional value of vegetation, which in turn can affect hare populations that eat the vegetation.
Causal mechanism
Causal mechanism
Answers that undermine, or help establish, the practical story of how an alleged cause could produce the alleged effect.