Self-study
Meteorologist: The number of tornadoes reported annually has more than doubled since the 1950s. ███ █████ ██████ ██████ ███ ████████ ███ ██████████ ███ ███████ ██ ████ █████████ ███ █████████ ██ █████ ████████ ████ ███████ █ ██████ ██████████ ██ ████ ████ ██ ████ ███
Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that the increased reports of tornadoes since the 1950s is probably explained by our finding a higher percentage of tornadoes that occur rather than an increase in the actual number of tornadoes. This is based on the fact that our ability to find tornadoes has improved since the 1950s.
Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that our ability to find tornadoes has increased enough to account entirely for the increased reports of tornadoes since 1950.
24.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████████ ███ ████ ███████ ███ ███ █████████████████ █████████
a
The physical damage ██████ ██ ███ ███████ ███████ ███ ████████ ███████ ████████ █████ ███ ██████
The argument concerns whether the number of tornadoes has increased. The damage produced by an average tornado does not reveal anything about the overall number of tornadoes.
b
The number of █████████ ███████ █████ ██████████ ███████ ████████ ███ ████ ████ ███████ █████ ███ ██████
If anything, this might undermine the argument by suggesting that there has been an increase in the number of tornadoes.
Directionally wrong
Directionally wrong
Answers that, if they have any effect, do the opposite of what we want (weaken when we're trying to strengthen, or strengthen when we're trying to weaken).
c
The number of █████ ███ ██████ █████ █████████ ████████ ████████ ███ ████████ ███████ ████████ █████ ███ ██████
This suggests there hasn’t been an overall increase in actual tornadoes, because we’d expect all kinds of tornadoes to increase, not just the small ones. Instead, the explanation for the increased reports of small tornadoes might simply be easier identification of them.
Plausibility
Plausibility
Presenting evidence that corroborates (in Strengthen) or conflicts (in Weaken) with the author's hypothesized explanation or the predictions that follow from that explanation.
d
The annual number ██ ██████ ███ ██ █████████ ███ █████████ ████████ █████ ███ ██████
If anything, this might undermine the argument by suggesting that there might be more tornadoes (which would account for the increased deaths due to tornadoes).
Directionally wrong
Directionally wrong
Answers that, if they have any effect, do the opposite of what we want (weaken when we're trying to strengthen, or strengthen when we're trying to weaken).
e
The geographic range ██ █████ █████████ ███ ████ █████████ ███ ████████ ███████ ████████ █████ ███ ██████
This tells us that the range in which tornadoes are most common has been about the same. But the range staying the same doesn’t tell us anything about the overall frequency of tornadoes within that range.