Self-study
Engineer: Air bags in automobiles occasionally cause injuries by accidentally inflating when no collision has occurred. ██████████ █████████████ ███ ██████████ ██ ███ ███ ███████ ██ █████████ ████ █████████ ████████ ███████ ███████ ███ ███ █████ ███ ███ ████ ███████ ████ █ ██████ ███ ███ ████ ████ █████ ███ ██ █████ ██ ███ █████ █████ ███ ███ ████████ ███████ ███████ ████ ████████ ████ ████ ███ ████████ ████ ██████████ ███ ███ █████████ ████ ██████
Summarize Argument
The author concludes that new, more complicated computer control systems for controlling air bags will probably increase the likelihood of accidental air bag inflation. This is because the new systems have more ways to fail than the older air bag control systems.
Identify and Describe Flaw
The author assumes that having a greater number of ways to fail implies a greater overall chance of failing. This doesn’t have to be true. Maybe, for example, there are now twice as many ways to fail. But each of those ways might have a tiny chance of occurring, such that the overall chance of failure is not necessarily higher than the chance that older systems would fail. Older systems might have had just one or two ways to fail, but each way could have had a very high chance of occurring.
21.
The engineer's argument is most ██████████ ██ █████████ ██ █████ ███ ██ ███ █████████ ████████
a
It fails to ███████ ██████████ ███ ███████████ ████ ███ ██████████ ██ █ ████████ ███████ ████ ███ ████████ ████ ███ ██████ ██ ████ ██ █████ ██ ███ █████
This possibility points out why the conclusion doesn’t follow. The chance a system fails does not have to increase just because the number of ways to fail increases. The overall chance of failure might go down, even if the number of ways to fail goes up.
b
It takes for ███████ ████ ███ ███████ ██ ██ ███ █████ ████████ ███████ ██████ ████ █████ ████ ███ ███ ██ ███████ █████████████
The author believes a more complex system involving more ways of failure will involve more instances of air bag inflation. But this doesn’t mean the author thinks every failure involves air bag inflation. There can be some failures that don’t lead to inflated air bags.
c
It fails to ███████ ██████████ ███ ███████████ ████ ███ ████ ███ █████ ████████████ ███████ ████ ████ █████ ████████ ███████ ███████ ██ ███ █████
This possibility doesn’t undermine the argument. There can be accidental inflation even when systems don’t fail. That doesn’t undermine the belief that a greater number of ways to fail implies a greater chance of accidental air bag inflation.
d
It overlooks the ███████████ █████ ████ ██ ███ ███ ████████ ███████ ███████ ██████████ ███ ████████ ████ ██████████ ███ ███ ██████████ ████ ███ ████ ██████████ ████ ████████ ████ █████████████
The author’s conclusion is not about whether we should implement the new control systems. So whether there are advantages or disadvantages to the new system has no bearing on whether the new system is more likely to lead to accidental air bag inflation.
e
It overlooks the ███████████ █████ ████ ██ ███ ████ ████████████ █████ ██████████ █████████ ████ ███ ███████████ ██ ███████████ ███ ██████████ ████ ████ ████████ ████ ████ ██████
This possibility doesn’t undermine the argument. Whether airbags prevent more injuries than they cause doesn’t affect whether there will be more accidental air bag inflation with the more complex system.