@WendyCurrington your last question is still a comparison, because you are still basically saying"if you are most likely to win, you are more likely THAN OTHERS to win. think about it in an absolute way: lets say this team has a 30% chance of winning, and every other team has less than 30% chance of winning. sure this team is more likely THAN other teams to win(30% > 20%? 10%?) , but this team also has 70% chance of NOT WINNING (100%-30%). so for this team alone, its chance of NOT winning is actually greater than winning (70% > 30%), you can't say this team is certainly going to win because its chance of not winning is 70%