I think the Disney argument is the strongest because it has several premises that supports the conclusion. The tiger argument is strong because due to the premise, it makes the conclusion more likely to be true. As far as the toppled trash bin argument, the premise may be detailed, but it is not guaranteeing that the conclusion is likely to be true as the others.

Stay encouraged and focus on the test! Also, pour into the personal statement because that will stand out on the application too. Praying for the best!