Here is what I wrote for this question when going through blind review.

(A)

- This is a weird choice but it is actually directly stated in the passage

- The passage says "subjects ALL reported they based guesses on patterns THEY saw"

- The patterns they saw were obviously telling them to select "bottom" most of the time

- Thus, in the hypothetical that (A) proposes: if they always guessed top, it would not have been based on the pattern they saw.

Correct.

* Wait. The answer choice says "they would not have been basing their guesses on ANY pattern they BELIEVED THEY SAW". In the stimulus scenario, the subjects might have actually seen a pattern that suggested to always guess "top" but rejected it in favor of another pattern they saw that suggested to select "bottom" more. Answer choice A does not have to be true.

(D)

Image: TOP - TOP - TOP - BOT - TOP - BOT - TOP

Guess: TOP - BOT - BOT - TOP - BOT - TOP - TOP

I don't see how this is wrong. This must be correct.

Top usually happened while there was the Bottom here and there. SOME (1+) must have selected bottom when it was top.

I got a 168 in November and am aiming for a 172+ in January. I am up at night (in California) so I can match up with your time-zone well. Would love to be part of this!

No, it's not. I've looked at the data from past years and more or the same amount of big (maybe not full) scholarships are given out in January and February than before those dates (T-25). Then you also have the opportunity to take the Feb LSAT to get a higher score and swoop some of the opened up money that comes from people withdrawing their applications.