PT62.S4.Q9 - How would you describe this flaw?

preppyprep_

PT62.S4.Q9 - If a mother's first child is born...

Explanation Video: https://7sage.com/lsat_explanations/lsat-62-section-4-question-09/

u______u

The biggest issue here is that we're dealing with probabilities. Just because one thing is likely to happen because of something doesn't mean you can run the contrapositive back on that. For example:
If you kill someone, it's likely you're going to jail.
You're not going to jail.
Therefore, it's likely you didn't kill someone.

However, "likely" introduces a myriad of other possibilities like the possibility of killing someone and not going to jail. As such, to reiterate: you can't run the contrapositive when you're dealing with probabilities.