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7sage Predictor Percentages: What is considered a reach/target?


Is a 40% chance a target? A 50%? etc?
Where do you think the cut off is for each category?


  • SLP_futureJDSLP_futureJD Alum Member
    464 karma

    Hi! In his office hours, @"David.Busis" said this (to be interpreted with a grain of salt always since it is only a predictor):
    20% or lower super reach
    20-40% reach
    40-60% target
    60-80% probable target
    80-100% safety

    Hope that helps!

  • MissChanandlerMissChanandler Alum Member Sage
    3256 karma

    The list above seems like a pretty good guideline! I don't think there are hard cutoffs though, and if there's a super reach that you REALLY would love to go to, shoot your shot even if the percentage is like ten percent and not twenty, etc.

  • SLP_futureJDSLP_futureJD Alum Member
    edited December 2018 464 karma

    @MissChanandler Yes I totally agree! I just looked at all my percentages and thought "oh well!" I applied anyway :)

  • David BusisDavid Busis Member Moderator
    7085 karma

    Thanks, @SLP_futureJD !

    But also—I just made those definitions up! The percentage is the percentage. If you have a 65% chance of getting into a law school, I'm not sure it matters whether you call that school a "target" or a "probable target." What matters is you say, "Okay, this is on the more likely end, but it's not a sure bet, so I should definitely add something that feels very safe and also, why not, a couple that feel reachier."

    Also also—the percentages themselves need to be taken with a grain of salt! The point is just to help you figure out whether you need to add schools that are higher or lower on the food chain, or both.

    335 karma

    Thanks! I just wanted to make sure I had roughly 3 targets, 3 reaches, and 3 safeties. :)

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