LSAT 131 – Section 1 – Question 11

LSAT 131 - Section 1 - Question 11

December 2009

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Question
QuickView		 Type Tags Answer
Choices		 Curve Question
Difficulty		 Psg/Game/S
Difficulty		 Explanation
PT131 S1 Q11
+LR
+Exp
Inference +Inf
A
5%
157
B
85%
166
C
8%
159
D
2%
157
E
1%
152
138
147
157
 +Medium 147.383 +SubsectionMedium

Some statisticians believe that the method called extreme value theory (EVT) is a powerful analytical tool. The curves generated by traditional statistical methods to analyze empirical data on human longevity predict that some humans would live beyond 130 years. According to the curves EVT generates, however, the limit on human life spans is probably between 113 and 124 years. To date, no one has lived beyond the upper limits indicated by EVT analysis.

Summary
Traditional statistical methods predicted that some humans would live over 130 years.
EVT methods estimated the human lifespan limit to be between 113 and 124 years.
No human has lived beyond the EVT predicted limit.

Very Strongly Supported Conclusions
EVT estimates are more in line with the data on the longest living humans than are traditional statistical methods.

A
EVT is, in general, a more reliable method for projecting future trends based on past observations than are traditional statistical methods.
Unsupported. Like (E), the stimulus is only addressing each method’s analysis of data on human longevity. We can’t infer that EVT is a more reliable method in general for projecting any future trends.
B
EVT fits the data about the highest observed human life spans more closely than do traditional statistical methods.
Very strongly supported. EVT predicted a life span limit of 113-124 years, while traditional methods predicted a limit of over 130 years. Since the highest observed human life span is shorter than the EVT predicted limit, EVT fits the data more closely.
C
According to the findings derived through the use of EVT, it is physically impossible for any human being to live longer than 124 years.
Unsupported. Like (D), just because no one has lived longer than 124 years so far doesn’t mean that no one ever will. The EVT findings are just describing a statistically probable limit based on data; they aren’t implying that it’s physically impossible to live longer.
D
Given the results generated by EVT, there is no point in conducting research aimed at greatly extending the upper limit on human life spans.
Unsupported. Like (C), just because no one has lived longer than 124 years so far doesn’t mean that no one ever will or that researching longer lifespans is pointless.
E
Traditional statistical methods of empirical data analysis should eventually be replaced by some version of EVT.
Unsupported. Like (A), the stimulus is only addressing each method’s analysis of data on human longevity. We don’t have enough information about either method’s overall accuracy to infer that EVT should entirely replace traditional methods.

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LSAT PrepTest 131 Explanations

Section 1 - Logical Reasoning

Section 2 - Logical Reasoning

Section 3 - Logical Reasoning

Section 4 - Reading Comprehension

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