LSAT 138 – Section 3 – Question 20

LSAT 138 - Section 3 - Question 20

December 2012

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Question
QuickView		 Type Tags Answer
Choices		 Curve Question
Difficulty		 Psg/Game/S
Difficulty		 Explanation
PT138 S3 Q20
+LR
Method of reasoning or descriptive +Method
Conditional Reasoning +CondR
Math +Math
Eliminating Options +ElimOpt
A
24%
164
B
12%
161
C
5%
158
D
53%
166
E
5%
159
145
162
179
 +Hardest 147.528 +SubsectionMedium

Scientist: Given the human tendency to explore and colonize new areas, some people believe that the galaxy will eventually be colonized by trillions of humans. If so, the vast majority of humans ever to live would be alive during this period of colonization. Since all of us are humans and we have no reason to think we are unrepresentative, the odds are overwhelming that we would be alive during this period, too. But, because we are not alive during this period, the odds are slim that such colonization will ever happen.

Summarize Argument: Counter-Position
It’s unlikely that humans will ever colonize the galaxy. Why? Because if humans were to colonize the galaxy, there would be trillions of us. (The galaxy is huge.) If there there were trillions of us, then the overwhelming majority of humans ever to exist would exist during that galaxy-colonized period. We exist. There’s no reason to think we’re unrepresentative of all humans. Yet we do not live in the galaxy-colonized period. Hence, it’s unlikely that humans will ever colonize the galaxy.

Describe Method of Reasoning
Similar to the contrapositive argument. Author reasons that if something were to occur, it would have a consequence. But that consequence is false. Hence, that something is unlikely to occur.

A
reasoning that because an event has not occurred, that event has a low probability of occurring
Descriptively inaccurate. (A) thinks the author’s argument is that because we have not yet colonized the galaxy we will therefore probably not colonize the galaxy. Rather, a main premise is that we’re not alive during a galaxy-colonized period.
B
drawing a conclusion that implicitly contradicts one of the premises that the argument accepts
Descriptively inaccurate. The conclusion contradicts and rejects other people’s prediction that humans will one day colonize the galaxy.
C
taking for granted that dependable predictions about the future cannot ever be made simply on the basis of the present facts
Descriptively inaccurate. In fact, the author assumes just the opposite. His argument attempts to make a prediction about the future on the basis of present facts.
D
inferring that since an event that is taken to be likely on a given hypothesis has not occurred, the hypothesis is probably false
Descriptively accurate. Author infers that since we are not alive during the galaxy-colonized period, that the hypothesis that we will one day colonize the galaxy is probably false.
E
making a prediction far into the future based on established human tendencies
Descriptively inaccurate. Premise descriptor is inaccurate. Author does not base his prediction on “established human tendencies.” Instead, he bases it on probability and the total number of humans .

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LSAT PrepTest 138 Explanations

Section 1 - Reading Comprehension

Section 2 - Logical Reasoning

Section 3 - Logical Reasoning

Section 4 - Logical Reasoning

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