LSAT 140 – Section 3 – Question 16

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Curve Question
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PT140 S3 Q16
+LR
Except +Exc
Strengthen +Streng
Causal Reasoning +CausR
A
3%
157
B
83%
166
C
4%
156
D
5%
160
E
4%
158
140
149
159
+Medium 149.74 +SubsectionMedium


Video of JY doing this

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Zoologist: In the Lake Champlain area, as the North American snowshoe hare population grows, so do the populations of its predators. As predator numbers increase, the hares seek food in more heavily forested areas, which contain less food, and so the hare population declines. Predator populations thus decline, the hare population starts to increase, and the cycle begins again. Yet these facts alone cannot explain why populations of snowshoe hares everywhere behave simultaneously in this cyclical way. Since the hare population cycle is well correlated with the regular cycle of sunspot activity, that activity is probably a causal factor as well.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that susnpot activity is probably a causal factor in the size of hare populations. This is because the hare population cycle between larger and smaller sizes is correlated with the regular cycle of sunspot activity.

Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that the correlation between sunspot activity and hare population cycles isn’t just coincidence.

A
Reproduction in predator populations increases when sunspot activity indirectly affects hormonal processes associated with reproduction.
This strengthens by providing a potential causal mechanism between sunspots and hare populations. The sunspots might affect predator populations, and the predator populations would in turn affect hare populations.
B
Local weather patterns that can affect species’ population changes can occur both in the presence of sunspot activity and in its absence.
This doesn’t strengthen because it doesn’t provide any reason to think the sunspot activity has any causal relationship with hare populations. We have no reason to think these weather patterns are correlated with sunspots.
C
Brighter light during sunspot activity subtly but significantly improves the ability of predators to detect and capture hares.
This strengthens by providing a causal mechanism between sunspots and hare populations. The sunspots can affect predator ability to hunt, which in turn affects hare populations.
D
The variation from cycle to cycle in the magnitude of the highs and lows in snowshoe hare populations is highly correlated with variations from cycle to cycle in the intensity of highs and lows in sunspot activity.
This strengthens by strengthening the correlation between sunspots and hare populations. Not only are these two things generally correlated, but (D) now tells us that the specific degree of population increase/decrease is correlated with the degree of sunspot intensity.
E
Sunspot activity is correlated with increases and decreases in the nutritional value of vegetation eaten by the hares.
This strengthens by providing a potential causal mechanism. Sunspots may have an effect on the nutritional value of vegetation, which in turn can affect hare populations that eat the vegetation.

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