LSAT 148 – Section 1 – Question 16

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Curve Question
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PT148 S1 Q16
+LR
Flaw or descriptive weakening +Flaw
Sampling +Smpl
A
1%
150
B
45%
165
C
1%
152
D
32%
159
E
21%
162
154
164
175
+Hardest 142.771 +SubsectionEasier

Airport administrator: According to the latest figures, less than 1 commercial flight in 2 million strays off course while landing, a number low enough to allow runways to be built closer together without a significant increase in risk. Opponents of closer runways claim that the number is closer to 1 in 20,000, but this figure is based on a partial review of air traffic control tapes and so is relatively unreliable compared to the other figure, which is based on a thorough study of the flight reports required of pilots for all commercial flights.

Summarize Argument: Counter-Position
The author concludes that the 1/20,000 figure is less reliable than the 1 in 2 million figure concerning the chance a commercial flight will stray off course when landing. This is based on the fact that the 1/20,000 figure is based on a partial review of air traffic ccontrol tapes, while the 1 in 2 mill. figure is based on a study of flight reports of pilots for all commercial flights.

Identify and Describe Flaw
The author doesn’t provide any compelling reason to think a partial review of air traffic control tapes is any less reliable than a review of flight reports for all flights. The tapes might contain more accurate information than the flight reports, even if the tapes don’t involve a review of all flights.

A
The argument presumes, without providing justification, that building runways closer together will encourage pilots to be more cautious while landing.
The argument concerns which statistic is more reliable. The impact of building runways closer together on pilots’ level of caution doesn’t bear on which statistic is more reliable.
B
The argument overlooks the fact that those who make mistakes are often unreliable sources of information about those mistakes.
The flight reports are “required of pilots”; this indicates the pilots are the sources of the reports. (B) points out that this information can be unreliable, because pilots who stray off course — which is a mistake — might not report that mistake.
C
The argument questions the integrity of those who are opposed to allowing runways to be built closer together.
The argument doesn’t question the integrity of any individuals. It relies on premises concerning the basis of the two statistics. Neither of these statistics comes from those who are against closer runways.
D
The argument presumes, without providing justification, that the air traffic control tapes studied do not provide accurate information concerning specific flights.
The author doesn’t assert that the tapes cannot provide accurate information. The author’s complaint is that the review of those tapes is only “partial.” So the author is open to the possibility that information in the tapes is accurate; it may be accurate, but incomplete.
E
The argument infers from a lack of conclusive evidence supporting the higher number’s accuracy that it must be inaccurate.
The author doesn’t conclude that the 1/20,000 figure is inaccurate, only that it’s less reliable. Also, the basis of the conclusion is not a lack of conclusive evidence for the 1/20,000 figure. The basis is a comparison of the sources of the two figures.

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