LSAT 149 – Section 3 – Question 24

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PT149 S3 Q24
+LR
Strengthen +Streng
Causal Reasoning +CausR
Math +Math
Fact v. Belief v. Knowledge +FvBvK
A
19%
161
B
8%
159
C
49%
166
D
1%
154
E
22%
161
153
164
175
+Hardest 147.456 +SubsectionMedium

Meteorologist: The number of tornadoes reported annually has more than doubled since the 1950s. But their actual number has probably not increased. Our ability to find tornadoes has improved, so we’re probably just finding a higher percentage of them than we used to.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that the increased reports of tornadoes since the 1950s is probably explained by our finding a higher percentage of tornadoes that occur rather than an increase in the actual number of tornadoes. This is based on the fact that our ability to find tornadoes has improved since the 1950s.

Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that our ability to find tornadoes has increased enough to account entirely for the increased reports of tornadoes since 1950.

A
The physical damage caused by the average tornado has remained roughly constant since the 1950s.
The argument concerns whether the number of tornadoes has increased. The damage produced by an average tornado does not reveal anything about the overall number of tornadoes.
B
The number of tornadoes hitting major population centers annually has more than doubled since the 1950s.
If anything, this might undermine the argument by suggesting that there has been an increase in the number of tornadoes.
C
The number of large and medium sized tornadoes reported annually has remained roughly constant since the 1950s.
This suggests there hasn’t been an overall increase in actual tornadoes, because we’d expect all kinds of tornadoes to increase, not just the small ones. Instead, the explanation for the increased reports of small tornadoes might simply be easier identification of them.
D
The annual number of deaths due to tornadoes has increased steadily since the 1950s.
If anything, this might undermine the argument by suggesting that there might be more tornadoes (which would account for the increased deaths due to tornadoes).
E
The geographic range in which tornadoes are most prevalent has remained roughly constant since the 1950s.
This tells us that the range in which tornadoes are most common has been about the same. But the range staying the same doesn’t tell us anything about the overall frequency of tornadoes within that range.

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