A study of adults who suffer from migraine headaches revealed that a significant proportion of the study participants suffer from a complex syndrome characterized by a set of three symptoms. █████ ███ ██████ ████ ███ ████████ ███████████ █████████ ███████ ██████ █████ ██████████ ██ ████████████ █████ ██████ █████ ████████████ ████████ ██████████ ██ █████ ██████ ██████████ ███ ███ ██ ███ ████ ████ █████ ██ ██████████ █████████ █████ ██ ███████████ █████ ████ ███████ ██ ██████████ ██████ ████ █████████ ███████ ██ ███ ██████████ ██ ███████ ████ █████████ ███████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ████████ █████████ ███ ██████████ ██ █████ █████
The stimulus begins by describing the results of a study focused on adults suffering from migraine headaches. The study found that many of these adults suffered from a syndrome with three symptoms: first, excessive anxiety in childhood; second, migraines in adolescence; and third, bouts of depression beginning around age 20.
After providing this context, the author notes that this pattern of three symptoms is invariable and always starts with excessive anxiety in childhood. From this premise, the author hypothesizes that such anxiety must be a cause of migraine headaches and depression in later life.
The major flaw here is that the author describes a correlation — for people with this syndrome, these three symptoms always occur, with anxiety occurring first — and concludes a causal relationship: because anxiety occurs first, it must cause the other two symptoms.
This doesn't have to be true. Just because the symptoms always show up in a particular order doesn't mean they cause each other in that order. Maybe all three symptoms are caused by some genetic factor that manifests in different ways at different ages. In that case, the three symptoms wouldn't be causing each other, so much as sharing one cause.
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