Columnist: Conclusion The advent of television helps to explain why the growth in homicide rates in urban areas began significantly earlier than the growth in homicide rates in rural areas. ██████████ ████ ██████ ███████ ██ █████ ██████████ █████ ████ █████ ███████ ████ ██ █████ ███████████ █████ ████████ █████ █████ ██████████ ██ █████ █████ ████ █████ ███████ ████ █ ███████ ████████ ██ █████ ████████ █████ ██████
The phenomenon, i.e. facts, are these: television sets became popular in urban households five years before they were popularized in rural households. Urban homicide rates also started growing in 1958, four years before rural homicide rates saw a similar increase. The columnist hypothesizes that the advent of television helps explain why homicide rates in urban areas began growing before homicide rates in rural areas.
This is a seriously flawed argument. You might immediately start thinking along the lines of a classic correlation/causation flaw pattern, since the columnist doesn't even consider that the growth in urban homicide rates might have begun earlier than the growth in rural homicide rates based on other causes, besides the advent of TV./p>
But even more egregiously, the author doesn't even show that the advent of TV is even correlated to the growth in homicide rates, because she doesn't show that those phenomena occurred at the same time, let alone that TV arrived before homicide rates went up. We know that TV came to urban households "about five years" earlier than to rural households, and that growth of urban homicide rates began "about four years earlier" than similar growth in rural areas. But while these are similar durations of "lag" between urban and rural areas, we're given a specific date for when the growth of urban homicide rates began — 1958 — and we aren't given any dates for when TV came to urban households.
So, for all we know, it's possible that TV came to urban households later than 1958, in which there's no way the advent of TV would help explain anything about the growth in homicide rates. This is a gaping hole in the argument, which argues purely from similarities in the duration of "lag" between urban and rural areas, without establishing that those periods of lag overlapped with each other.
But even though this is a really big flaw in the argument, remember that an answer choice that addresses only this flaw — i.e., that tells us that the advent of TV in urban areas occurred just prior to the growth of homicide rates in those areas, and likewise for rural areas — would still only establish that these phenomena are correlated, not causally linked. An ideal answer choice would both show that these phenomena are correlated (i.e., that they occurred in overlapping periods) and establish a causal link between increased access to TV and homicide rates going up.
Analysis by ArdaschirArguelles
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ ████████ ███ ███████████ █████████
In places where ███ ██████ ██ ███████ ██████████ ████████ ██ ████ ███ ████████ █████ ███ ████ ████
The portrayal of ████████ ██ ██████████ ██ █ ██████ ███ ██ ███████ ██ ███ ████████ ██ ████████
There were no ███████ ██████████ ████████ ██████ ███ █████ █████ ██ ███████████
The earlier one ██ ███████ ██ ████████ ██ ███████████ ███ ████ ████████ ███ ███████
Increasing one's amount ██ ███████ ████ █████████ █████ ███████████ ██ ███ ██████████