PT13.S2.Q19

PrepTest 13 - Section 2 - Question 19

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Each year, an official estimate of the stock of cod in the Grand Banks is announced. ████ ████████ ██ ████████ ██ █████████ ███ ████████ █████████ ██ ███ ████ ███ ███ ██████████ ███ █████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ████████ ███████ ██████ █ ███████████ ████████ ██ ███ ████ ███ ███ █████ ██ ███ ███████ ██████ ██ ████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ███████ ██████████ ███████ ███ ████ ██ ███████ ██████ ████████ █████ ██ ███ ████ ████████ ████ ██ ███████ ██████ █████ ███ █████████ ██ ███ ███ ███ ██ ███ █████ ███ ███ █████ ██ ████████ ████████ ███ ███ █████████ ███████ ██████ ████████ ████████ ███ ███ ████ ██████ ███ ████████ █████ ██ ██████████ ███████ ███ ████ ██████████ █████████ ██ █████ ███ ████ ██████ ██ ███ ██████████████ ████████ ███ ████ ███████████

Diamond In The Rough

With the benefit of hindsight, here are the claims from the stimulus that matter for the answer choices:

  1. The official estimate is the average of the research estimate and the commercial estimate.
  2. The commercial estimate is based on how easy it is to catch cod (weight caught per effort-unit), and has gone up these past 10 years.
  3. The research estimate is based on how many cod scientists catch, and has gone down about the same amount these past 10 years.

Testwriters commonly make questions more difficult by dumping a bunch of additional facts into the stimulus that don’t get used. But the answer really could come from anywhere, so you still need to read and understand every claim no matter how unimportant it seems.

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19.

Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ █████ ██ ███████ ███ ███ ███████ ███████████ ███████ ███ ████████ █████ ██ ██████████ ███████ ███ ███ ██████████████ █████████

a

Fishing vessels often ██████ █████ ███████ ██████ ███ ███ ███ █████████ █████ ███████████ ███ ██████ ██ ████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ██████

This would explain why the commercial estimate is not getting higher, but we're trying to explain why it has been getting higher.

Also, the commercial estimate is based on fish-per-effort-unit, not the total number of fish caught.

5%
b

More survey vessels ███ ███ ████████ ██ ███ ██████ ████████ ██████ ████ ████ ████████ ██ █████ ████

Assuming more vessels means more fish, (B) would explain why the research estimate got higher, but in fact the research estimate got lower.

Alternatively, assuming more vessels means fewer fish-per-vessel, that doesn't matter because the research estimate is based on the total number of fish, not fish-per-vessel.

1%
c

Improvements in technology ████ ███ ████ ██ █████ ████ ███████ ██████████ ███████ ███████ ██ ██████ ███ █████ █████ ███████ ██ ███ ████ ███████

This would explain how the commercial estimate (which measures fish caught per effort unit) could get higher even if the actual cod population stayed the same (or shrank, as the research estimate indicates).

It's easier to catch lots of cod, so the fish-per-effort measure goes up. But we're fishing up all the cod, so the amount of cod the researchers catch goes down.

79%
d

Survey vessels count ████ █████ ███ ██████ ██████ █ ██████ ██████ ███████ ███████ ██████████ ███████ ███████ ██████ ███ ███ ██████ ██████ ███ ██████ ██ █ █████

We're trying to explain changes in these measurements over time. Each definition (D) presents applies to its estimate equally across the past and present. So they can explain why one estimate consistently reads lower/higher than the other, but they can't explain why each estimate would change from one year to another.

12%
e

Because of past ███████████ ██ ████ █████ ███████ ███████ ███ █████ ███ ███████ ███████ ██ ███ ████ ██████ ██ ███████ ██ ███ ██ ██████

The commercial estimate isn't based on the number of fish caught, but rather on the number of fish caught per-effort-unit (i.e. how easy it is to catch cod).

2%

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