Hey! I am having trouble understanding why A is incorrect. I do see how and why D works but I can't understand why A doesn't.
Here, we are given a correlation between the ad, price increase and drop in smoking. From the correlation, we get a causation that the ad is what caused the drop in smoking.
The flaw here is that the author overlooks all other alternate causes of the drop in smoking. In a strengthen question, an AC that denies an alternate causal explanation wins. For example, an AC that says or implies that X, an alternate cause for the drop in smoking, did not actually happen or that it can't be the cause will be the correct AC. And any AC that knocks out an alternate explanation for a given phenomenon automatically strengthens the proposed explanation.
Coming to AC A which says that the residents did not increase use of other forms of tobacco. Here, X i.e. the alternate cause, is given as people's increased use of other forms of tobacco. AC A denies this alternate cause.
The explanation that the 3% decrease in smoking happened because people switched over to other forms of tobacco seems like a valid alternate cause for the drop in number of smokers. (Cause: people switched to other forms of tobacco; effect: drop in smoking) It is such a small percentage and it is entirely reasonable that people switched how they wanted their tobacco kick. So, "3% people stopped smoking because they had switched over to other forms of tobacco instead" is a wonderful alternate causal explanation. Denying this alternate explanation increases the likelihood of ad causing the drop being true.
I get that D is better because it deals with the alternate explanation mentioned right there in the stimulus but how is A irrelevant?
TIA!
I know a very popular approach to solving RRE questions is to first come up with your own resolution and then check the answer choices—this seems to be your strategy as well. I’ve tried that too, but it never really worked for me. I use a simpler pre-phrase for these types of questions: If there is a world where X is true, what is the one thing that will ensure Y is also true in the same world?
I’ve accepted the fact that I’m not a subject-matter expert on 99.99% of the topics the RRE stimuli present, and guessing feels like a waste of time. Instead, I’d rather spend that time eliminating one really bad answer choice. If I’m analyzing an answer choice and come across something confusing (which happens more than I’d like to admit), I just remind myself of my pre-phrase: I’m looking for something that explains how X and Y can coexist in the same world.