I understand that there are literally only two ways to get this Genie+ pass, but I can't help but to question whether people like employees or people that are Walts friends/family get special treatment and wouldn't have to do either of these to receive the pass. I'm still having a hard time understanding how these are strong assumptions.

I think when something is most likely true there is little to no chance of questioning it whereas when it is probably true there is room to question and challenge your answer.

7.1 "It's almost certain that Alice will get the prize" doesn't seem like a conclusion to me. I though a conclusion was matter of fact and the "almost certain" threw me off. Can Someone explain please.