PT2.S2.Q14 - the "suicide wave"

TheBatman

PT2 S2 Q14

Type of question: WEAKEN

Correct me if I am wrong in any part of my explanation.

Premise(s)

Oct. 1929 suicides due to stock market crash Comparatively low, summer had higher suicide rate, while Stock market flourishing

Conclusion

Stock market crash Suicide wave in Oct. 1929 more legend than fact.

What I am looking for:

Answer A NO. We don’t need to know the reason of suicide.

Answer B NO. This strengthens conclusion.

Answer C YES. I was thrown off by language. I thought “preceding and following years” was talking about how suicides stayed above average for preceding and following years, which doesn’t answer why summer suicide rates were higher, and seemed a bit off topic. What this answer is saying is the average suicide rate of Oct and Nov was lower than stock market crash before and after 1929. So, it means stock market crash did indeed increase suicide rates. Weakens the conclusion.

Answer D NO. We don’t care about beginning of calendar year.

Answer E NO. Unnecessary information. Not the same as Oct and Nov? And, season has to do with it?

MISTAKE

I didn’t understand answer C. I picked E, and was not happy with it, but moved on.

thisissparta

Yeah, I think your explanations for the answer choices are all correct. However, (D) actually does have the potency to strengthen the argument. The fact that, for the years surrounding the market crash, suicide rates are higher toward the end of the year helps the conclusion hold water.

(D) and (B) are not too different.

Grace...

Yes, your reasoning seem to be good.
Premise: Oct. & Nov. 1929 suicide number was comparatively low.
When market was flourishing in summer, suicide number was higher.
Conclusion: "suicide wave" after stock market crash of Oct. 1029 is just a legend, not fact.
Weaken: we need to support stock market was indeed the cause of suicide wave.
So we need to show, (1) when there was cause, there was effect or (2) when there was no cause, there was no effect.

Answer choice (C) does (1). In Oct. & Nov.1929 (cause present), suicide rate was higher than those months of other years. (effect occured)

This is a weaken problem, but the task is to strengthen the causal relationship.
As a side note, to strengthen causal relationship: prove that
when cause present - effect occurs, or
when no cause - no effect occurs.

To weaken causal relationship: prove that
cause present - no effect, or
no cause - effect occurs.

TheBatman

@thisissparta said:
Yeah, I think your explanations for the answer choices are all correct. However, (D) actually does have the potency to strengthen the argument. The fact that, for the years surrounding the market crash, suicide rates are higher toward the end of the year helps the conclusion hold water.

(D) and (B) are not too different.

Ah, I get it. You're right. Thank you!

TheBatman

@"Grace..." said:
Yes, your reasoning seem to be good.
Premise: Oct. & Nov. 1929 suicide number was comparatively low.
When market was flourishing in summer, suicide number was higher.
Conclusion: "suicide wave" after stock market crash of Oct. 1029 is just a legend, not fact.
Weaken: we need to support stock market was indeed the cause of suicide wave.
So we need to show, (1) when there was cause, there was effect or (2) when there was no cause, there was no effect.

Answer choice (C) does (1). In Oct. & Nov.1929 (cause present), suicide rate was higher than those months of other years. (effect occured)

This is a weaken problem, but the task is to strengthen the causal relationship.
As a side note, to strengthen causal relationship: prove that
when cause present - effect occurs, or
when no cause - no effect occurs.

To weaken causal relationship: prove that
cause present - no effect, or
no cause - effect occurs.

Thank you for breaking it down for me. I understand better now.

Grace...

@TheBatman Great!